Broken Britain © fintag

Double dipping:
According to the Guardian, the UK's "Economy grew half as fast as expected in first quarter".

According to the Times, it reports "Gordon Brown warns of 'double-dip recession' as economy falters".

The facts. The UK enjoyed / suffered a 0.2% growth in the last quarter. That is tiny. Statistically insignificant. A fat tail.

My concern is the media take these numbers as correct, accurate and real. The reality is, as we have seen in Greece is that these are statistics and are estimates only.

The ONS takes data, puts it into a spreadsheet and then assuming there are no formula errors and the data is of good quality, pumps out a headline number.

However, does the ONS adjust for coherence adjustments? Their website says:

"In practice the data sources used in the accounts are subject to statistical error and complete coherence between measures of economic activity is not achieved without making specific adjustments."

More importantly it also says:

"...coherence adjustments average 0.5 per cent of GDP."

So that means we have either double dipped and the UK is 0.3% in the red or we are on the way to a no-holds barred boom at 0.7%.

Take your pick.

What would Goldman Sachs do?
The obvious and that is buy GBP (telegraph)