IT won't be long before the revolting peasants say enough is enough and countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Belgium turn towards the Cuban model of democracy. Hungary has been there and it looks like it is going back too.
1953 - Stalin died, Soviet tanks put down revolting East Germans, the CIA plotted an Iranian coup and Castro kicked started the Cuban revolution. Will 2010 become the new 1953?
A couple of years ago I predicted the Euro would have a sticky end and today we have a number of slow off the mark economists boasting the same prediction. Economists, Academics, Hacks and Credit Rating Agencies have one thing in common. The snail.
Of course my FX mates would love to see the Euro break up because there would be more currency business. I too would like to stop the Italians and French buying up London because the Euro is (well it was) strong against GBP. If they had their own currencies back (Frankie Lira) then us Brits would be buying up their cheap villas and palazzos as should be.
Of course this is dull. June 22 is the date we are getting excited about ...not the date England come back from the World Cup but the 25% public sector cuts and rationing of food and broadband access.
My palms are sweaty and so are those of my currency models. Not enough cuts and GBP falls; severe lock up your daughter cuts and GBP falls.
The FSA, the UK's Snail Breeders Association, has just realised that tier 1 capital is mostly sovereign debt and much of it will soon become tier junk. Another banking crisis? Quite possible. The banks are being forced to have even more capital, thanks to the G20 snails, and this risky debt will be offloaded for less than they paid. You see, someone has to pay off debt eventually. Writing off debt is not really feasible (although with todays twitter generation running the world, memories are short) but there is a solution. A new world currency.
Fintag Bank (it doesn't need a license in Fintag Land where there is no regulator) will create a currency. It maybe stones, shells, condoms, gold paper, who knows. Ideas welcome.
Snails Predict End Of Euro (times)
Hungary Denies Revolution (ft)
G20 Sort Out Capital Requirements: More Sovereign Debt (wallstreetjournal)
TSB HBOS Fight (times)
Banking Levy Dropped (ft)
Obama to go the way of UBS.