Friday, June 25, 2010

Sovereign Debt

Old Chair

Old Chair © fintag

News comments:
I was playing around with the Financial Times flash app that shows you the US and Japan have lots of debt. Of course this is a silly comparison.

An extrapolated time series of

- interest payments / gdp
- log (Interest payments / average age of the population)
- percentage of tax revenue paid by foreigners / debt principal
- debt time buckets
- debt as a percentage of consumers debt
- debt / iPhone sales

would be much more interesting and useful.

Most analysis is like sitting on a chair and rating its comfortableness. Feathers and silk can however conceal some nasty underlying supporting material. Debt, as in Japan is almost meaningless. It is like a big Ponzi scheme. More debt is issued so that other debt holders interest can be serviced. Unlike a Madoff type ponzi, the underlying assets can be created (printing money) so it's not such a big deal. Unless of course the debt is short term like Greece and Spain where a handy bank like the EU tax payer funded ECB comes in to the rescue and the debt is spread around the prudent and sensible.

Today's shorts:
NY VS BP (globalpensions)
Mistresses Dumped To Save Cash (telegraph)

Today's longs:
Debt, Consumption, Death (bloomberg)
ING 20 years too late (icfmag)
Third Country Trouble Stalls Redtapers (reuters/yahoo)
Trillions and Trillions (bloomberg)

My Guess:
UCITS IV will be de facto fund structure for hedge funds in Europe.




2 comments:

Richardlogo said...

Re: Mistresses Dumped To Save Cash (telegraph)

"A few months ago I promised my mistress a breast enhancement and liposuction as a gift," says one City worker. "Now I can only afford one or the other."

At first I read the "Now I can only afford one or the other" as referring to the mistress's breast's enhancement which would have been decidedly odd

Anonymous said...

I quite agree with the writer on this one.

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