Friday, May 28, 2010

Taxing Your Square Foot Print

Polaris

Polaris © fintag


News comments:
Lots of UK media attention about Capital Gains Tax. We all hate being taxed but it has to be done to help reduce the huge deficit. We have people with second or more homes and share portfolios complaining vociferously.

Buying an index tracker or a couple of homes with debt and expecting to receive gains that are not taxed is madness. I have gone on before about the distortion in the UK property market because there is no tax on gains. This is why the UK property market bubbles and pops.

House prices are mad. The average salary in London is about $40,000 and the average house about $500,000. That is 12 times salary. Of course it is not as simple as that because a family of 4 would have to pay at least $1.2m for a regular Terry and June house. To get a house you have to borrow the money. Debt to live.

The good thing about hiking up CGT to income tax levels is it means collecting tax will be so much easier. No more telling HMRC that money earned was a gain and not income. More importantly the housing market which is completely stagnant will become more liquid. Liquidity means prices will fall and people under 35 with small families will be able to buy a house.

The UK housing stock is shockingly bad and with an overpopulated island, there should be a square footage tax too. The more space you have, the more you pay. Two houses is greedy and CGT should be 100% along with a council tax based on square footage.

Channel 4 have an interesting series looking at the rich and the poor. It made me cry. Last night we had a family of 5 living in a 2 bed flat whilst a buy to let landlord who had a £30m portfolio handed them cash to appease his guilt.

Personally, I only rent properties and live in hotels and other people's yachts. I like the European way of living. Us Brits have got it all wrong and I hope the CGT rises are pushed through.

Today's shorts:
Euro Crash 2.0 Explained (telegraph)
Harrods: Trustees Forced Fayed's Hand (globalpensions/eveningstandard)
German Stiffs Force Axa To Gate Real Estate Fund (bloomberg)

Today's longs:
2.7 Trillion In Hedge Land (castlehall/ft)

Gossip:
Today there is no gossip.



Wednesday, May 26, 2010

US GAAP and the Fin 48'ers

Empty

Escaping Canary Wharf © fintag

News comments:
Fin 48. US GAAP. Nightmare. It has come to my attention that any sales of Spanish assets suffer an 18% CGT rate. Now my Cayman fund pays no tax but it appears that this tax may have to be paid so we have to put a provision in. Answer. Move to IFRS.

However, my accountant tells me IFRS is going to adopt Fin 48 as it converges into US GAAP and becomes IFRS. So fund redomiciling is on the books. These are the little things that make life as hedgie so painful.

Spain needs tax revenue and as us hedgies are shorting Spain, so their revenge will be to start chasing that CGT.

Tax used to be collected for wars.

Today's shorts:
Banks To Pay Insurance: Wow, How Pathetic (telegraph)
China Says No To Euro (bbc)
Hedgies Stay Put (cnn)
12 Year Old Says No To Bailout (cityam)
Prius Defies Odds (bbc)

Today's longs:
AIG: Bargain of the Century (bloomberg)
Banks Pay Madoff Losers (telegraph)
Donald Duck Quacks Off (bloomberg)
Distress Is Back In Town (bloomberg)

Prediction:
Fin 48 to piss off Hedgies.



Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Cancelling The 2012 Olympics

Waste of money

Olympics 2012 © fintag

News comments:
What a sham. The UK's cost cutting is nothing but toe nail cutting. To saw off a leg or two will involve really nasty rationalisation, unemployment, lack of services etc. It was easy for Labour in the last 13 years to spend, spend, spend, for spending is so easy and doesn't involve much intellect. Cost reduction is much more difficult.

Governments never look at the long term liabilities spending cause. Building a school. It will need maintaining and running and people and more costs. So cutting costs is not just about here and now but over there too..

Firing someone from a government post and putting them on benefits doesn't save you that much. Better to export them to another country, like Poland or better stil Korea.

Here are some ideas;

Produce an NHS "what's allowed / what's not allowed" policy document. Anyone with BMI's over 22 will not be allowed to use any NHS services. Of course this sort of discrimination could backfire as all the fatties turn into super healthy sporting types that live to 110. Think of the burden on the state pension fund.

Maybe we should all be forced to work until we drop. Compulsory Euthanasia is the min of(retirement age, bmi * 4)?

Visa and Mastercard and banned from the UK. Privately owned debt will be made illegal.

Dog owners to be given tax rebates to encourage them to poo everywhere so pooper scooper jobs can be created.

A tax on denim. And superdry logos. And ipod headsets. And people who cough without putting their hand up. A tax on Foxton suits (Clegg and Cameron style).

Cancelling the 2012 Olympics, turning into a neutral Switzerland (Korea is too far away to worry), introduction of workhouses, debtors prisons and only allowing tax payers to vote. Dull people, those with beards over 1 inch thick and sandal wearers over 35 should have to wear boiler suits and open doors for women.

I would hate to be a politician.

Today's shorts:
No Comment (infectiousgreed)
iSuicide (telegraph)
Hedgies In Brazil (efinancial)

Today's longs:
Greedy GLG Wants More (finalternatives)
Korea + Spain = Vol (cityam)
UK Goes On Strike (bbc)

Gossip:
Norway to win Eurovision song contest.



The Eurovision Song Contest

Unemployed Graduates

Giz A job © fintag


News comments:
Here are the countries that form the EU. Not all have the Euro as a currency (Monaco uses the EUR and is not a member of the EU) and not all are fully paid up Eurocrat lovin' democracies.

As you can the see EU has some Premier league countries (***) and some conference league countries (*):

*** Austria
** Belgium
* Bulgaria
* Cyprus
* Czech Republic
*** Denmark
* Estonia
*** Finland
** France
** Germany
* Greece
* Hungary
* Ireland
* Italy
* Latvia
** Lithuania
*** Luxembourg
** Malta
** Netherlands
* Poland
* Portugal
* Romania
* Slovakia
* Slovenia
* Spain
*** Sweden
* United Kingdom

[Source: Fintag]

Seems like there are too many light weights pulling down the biggies. It amazes me the EU has survived so long. Of course a collapse of the EUR, to which most of the above countries belong, would be Christmas coming early for the Yanks who have been in fear of the Epsilon and two parallel lines for a number of years now. Us stubborn Brits who never joined the EUR can play around with our tax and interest rates and even manipulate our FX if we need to are, despite the feeble cuts offered yesterday by the Coalition government, will become a healthy and bouncing baby against a dementia strewn cripple. [Editor: Harsh]

Today's shorts:
Deflated Lap Dancers (bloomberg)
Hedgies: Monkeys Who Play Darts (allaboutalpha)
Asian Panics Over Lost Will To Live (bbc)
Obama Gives Up And Turns Printers On Again (finfacts)
China Crash Cometh (ftalphaville)
Goldmorgan Stanley Bans Nose Picking (hitc)

Today's longs:
False Flash Fixers (reuters)
PIMCO Pumps Pessimism (globalpensions)
Pendragon From The Ashes (emii)
Yo Yielding Yielders (bloomberg)
Osbourne Cuts Toe Nails (cityam)

Gossip:
Nearly run over yesterday by Maybach with reg plates JT1.



Monday, May 24, 2010

Where did all the toxic assets go?

Bring back Abbey

Safe As Northern Rock © fintag



News comments:
Have you ever tried to read the accounts of an investment bank? Good luck to you. There are analysts with many years experience who still scratch their heads over the opaqueness of a Bank's balance sheet's assets and liabilities. It is easy booking them at cost but the trick is valuing them at fair value or whatever the latest accounting standard says.

Take real estate.

This is usually an asset on the balance sheet. Whether is it a direct investment, a loan or an investment in a fund, the likelihood is that the underlying building is mostly empty and yields little if anything at all. Millions of square feet of empty space. A dead asset. And yet these are still valued at 2007 prices. Why? Because if the Banks tried to sell down their assets, the market prices would collapse and all Banks would suffer asset loss and hey presto we would have to bail them out again to keep their capital ratios up. Unlike the old toxic assets where a market was made by Governments which bought the stuff and so kept most of the banks afloat, this time the regulators have just told them to hold tight and hope with a bit of inflation and huge growth in businesses they can ride out the storm.

This is what the big real estate asset owners like Morgan Stanley, ING and Santander are doing. Holding on tight. Others have let go, such as the real estate lovin' Irish Banks who had to be bailed by the Irish government. And of course Lehman.

Take the Spanish bank, Santander. With Icelandic pretensions, it bought those toxic real estate loving Bradford and Bingley and Alliance and Lostitall banks as well as funding most of the real estate in Spain? At the weekend, Spanish bank Cajasur was saved from collapse. Spain is on the verge of anarchy and everything is being done to keep Santander looking strong. But this is gossip. Just like the rumors circulating about Steven Gerrard's love of teenagers, it is unlikely Santander is the next Lehman 2.0.

Roubini
This man is a liability. It wasn't that long ago when I sat at a seminar in London where this 21st Century god said we were in a V shape recovery. That is now conveniently forgotten and he is now saying it is crash 2.0 time. Dr Doom is a chancer and opportunist.

Today's shorts:
Diamonds: The Great Price Fix (telegraph)
Osbourne's Drop In The Ocean (cityam)
Germany Faces Up To The Facts: It Is No France (finfacts)
Hedgies Stare At The Headlights (hedgeweek)
RIP Nylon. Long live Nylon (thisismoney)
Lehman 2.0 (hitc)

Today's longs:
IMF Fists Osbourne (telegraph)
Hedgies Euro Gamble (telegraph)
Selling Oil As Fast As BP Lies (bloomberg)
Kurkland Goes To Prison (newyorktimes)
Old People To Be Shot (infectiousgreed)

Gossip:
Santander. Safe as houses.



Thursday, May 20, 2010

USA contracts Rosacea

Green Visa

Green Visa © finviz


News comments:
Nice graphic. The world burns to the sounds of Angie Merkel and the Desperadoes and Visa goes green. I guess come the revolution, the last thing most people will give away is a credit card.

Thankfully the Euro is falling to a more representative value which will keep all these arrogant tourists off Oxford Street. But not just yet. The correlation between USDEUR and USDGBP is as close as Cameron and Clegg at PMQ. This will change. I hope. GBP is in bad shape but not as bad as the Euro, surely?

Us Brits just cannot shake these Europeans off and with Nick Cleggless and the bend over backward 1922'ers, we are closer to Europe than ever.

Let us hope the volcanic ash hovers over the channel for the next 10 years and the channel tunnel floods.

Today's shorts:
Toyota Prius Breaks World Speed Record (wallstreetjournal)
MAN Downgraded For Being Clueless (hedgeweek)
Korea Versus Korea (bloomberg)
Lehman Eat Your Heart Out(cityam)
Double Dip (telegraph)
RIP the EUR (telegraph)
China: Party Is Over (ftalphaville)
MAN Sheds Men and Women (hitc)
Financial Reform Loopholes (reuters)
Eurocrats Born In A Lab (telegraph)

Today's longs:
Liquidate everything and hold onto Cash ...USD mostly

Gossip:
Anarchy in Portugal by the summer.

############### [Editor: Superinjunction]



Speculate to Speculate

Obama, Branson, Kahn, Taggit

Obama, Branson, Kahn, Taggit © Business Punk



News comments:
Tell me. Are you a speculator? Are you someone who makes conjectures without knowing the facts? One who attempts to anticipate price changes and, through buying and selling contracts, aims to make profits? Are you a person who trades (i.e. derivatives, commodities, bonds, equities or currencies) with a higher-than-average risk, in return for a higher-than-average profit potential? Are you sophisticated, a high risk-taking investor with expertise in the market(s) to which you trade and do you usually use highly leveraged investments such as futures and options?

These are some of the many definitions scraped from the web and all seem to imply a speculator is someone looking to make money. When I hear the whining Merkel going on about speculators destroying the Euro dream, it suddenly dawned upon me why Europe hates Hedgies, Private Equity, in fact all business. Profit making is something that should be left to non Europeans it seems.

Please get me outta here.

Today's shorts:
Get Me Outta Europe (telegraph)
Brevan Howard Launch (not same as raised) Commodities Fund (dealbook)
Dr BigMac (bloomberg)

Today's longs:
Calpers Takes Over Hollister (global pensions)
12 Year Old Cuts Corporation Tax (telegraph)
Hedgies To Blame For Red Tape (independent)
ATM Founder Runs Out Of Cash (bbc)
Eurotrash Hedgies (time)

Prediction:
Germany to leave the Euro by end of the year.



Wednesday, May 19, 2010

European Chaos

AAA UK

AAA UK © fintag



News comments:
Fancy some German debt? Didn't think so. The ban on shorting in Germany is hysterical. Trying to stop speculators from shorting its debt, CDS's and M√úNCHENER R√úCKVERSICHERUNGS-GESELLSCHAFT AG will not work; it never worked post Lehman. Typical socialists trying to control markets - well markets don't like that and this could be the catalyst that destroys the Euro. So get out there and refuse to buy German bonds since you are indirectly buying Greek crap anyway.

In other news, the Euro took a beating and so did GBP. Shock, horror, but my beloved ONS, the UK's statistical agency I scrape every day into my models, has a larger error rate than reported in its small print. Factors such as the UK's unemployment, debt and inflation are way higher. Nice. I thought this sort of fabrication only happened in dodgy countries like Greece and Spain ....oops the UK is of course a member of the same club, the PUKGSI, how stupid of me.

Today's shorts:
UK to Scrap University Places For Brits (telegraph)
Naked Short Selling To Be Banned In Europe (hedgefundsreview)
Germany Bans Short Pants (reuters)
Bafin Says One Thing And Does Another (bafin)
Risk Masturbation And Having to Say No (allaboutalpha)
EU To Bail Out The USA (cityam)
From AAA to Prison (times)

Today's longs:
Plunge Probe Plug Proposed (reuters)
King Fails To Refresh Inflation Spreadsheet (ft)
Finbar Taggit Eaten By German Goalkeeper (youneedgoodeyesight)
EU Debt Is The New Subprime (bloomberg)

Gossip:
Newcits to be banned along with beards.



Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Canot understand the headline

Telegraph Spellchecker

Telegraph Spellchecker © fintag

News comments:
We all make mistakes but surely a top rated news website should use a spell checker? Not that I can talk of cuorse ...



Monday, May 17, 2010

Failure + Failure = One more cocktail

One more cocktail

One more cocktail © fintag


News comments:
I have known GLG and MAN for many years but never in my wildness dreams did I imagine them merging. Both are struggling and have been stragglers for a couple of years, although a synergistic collection of these failures may produce something. It is the sign of the times. Spain bailing out Greece, Clegg giving Cameron one, Iceland and BA, ....the combining of the useless.

One thing that is surprising me still is the denial that the Euro is going the way of the Dodo. The Euro is in free fall and the Germans are printing Deutchmarks, just in case. So why are the redtapers still obsessing about hedge funds in Europe? These new rules will damage ALL funds. It will be goodbye to the Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Cayman, BVI, ....time for these islanders to build a navy and invade Brussels.

I was on the lash last night and was holed up at the Connaught. Again. It really does feel like the end of the party, a bit like being on death row with a black AMEX card. Thankfully my credit card is paid off in USD so to enter [Editor: I think you mean entertain] a bevy of beauties at Scotts costs me a copy of the Big Issue. Sterling is as cheap as chips and will go to 1.35 - but parity? Wow, that would be nice.

Us hedgies have funds in USD so we are laughing all the way to June 22.

Today's shorts:
Ireland 1 Greece 0 (finfacts)
Crap for Crap Swap (telegraph)
Cayman Saved From Death By A Thousand Eurocrats (msnbc)
McKinsey Man Pays For His Life (ftalphaville)

Today's longs:
White Van Man Goes Native (cityam)
Managed Accounts Cure Cancer (hedgeweekreview)

Gossip:
MAN bought GLG because Goldman Sachs told them to.



Handbags at Dawn

Handbags at dawn

Handbags at dawn © fintag



News comments:
Today we learn the UK is going to do a Lehman. What this means is the balance sheet isn't quite what it seems and PWC or who ever is appointed to sort the mess out will soon find it has considerably more liabilities than reported. Just like Ken Livingstone signing 15 year leases for bendy buses, Balls et al have signed up contracts with favored contractors just before the election. The UK is one large SIV.

But that is dull. High frequency trading, now that is exciting. As mentioned before, it is no coincidence that Goldman is 2 feet away from the London Stock Exchange. Milliseconds mean Bucks.

Volcanic ash. This is predicted to go on for decades so why isn't the airline industry looking at hot air balloons or large fans on wings that blow ash away from the engines?

And then of course GLGenders goes global as Man buy them out.

Today's shorts:
Hedgies are to disband and regroup as IFAs (telegraph)
Greece to sue the USA (bloomberg)
Its All A Gas (independent)
Down Under Drug Baron Bankers (hitc)

Today's longs:
SEC Slag off Schroders (global pensions)
AIFM is Crap and will be ignored: Prague new Mayfair (icfa)
Flash Crash: Raincoats In Vogue (castlehall)
Queen Arki and the Killers (bloomberg)
Books and Records (cityam)

Prediction:
Clegg and Cameron will announce they are gay lovers later in the year.



Friday, May 14, 2010

When all is lost, fishing is our saviour

No Fish

No Fish © fintag


News comments:
So lets get real. The banks are holding assets at an unfair value. This is true. You see, they have lots of toxic stuff like CDOs, illiquid structured products and real estate that is worth 10 cents to the dollar but have been valued at regulators prices which is about $1.

Having been allowed to create artificial prices for these assets, along with being forced to buy triple A but soon to be junk sovereign debt with taxpayers bailout money, the banks are in rude health. Unlike the UK which is so shot to pieces, the gay couple at number 10 [Editor: Surely some mistake] have an almighty tricky problem: where to cut first.

Health? Education? Defense? Fishing? Civil Servant pensions?

But that is dull. Why is it the Credit Rating Agencies have escaped censure for causing the global crash and the banks are being attacked for providing them with dud data? Because the banks have bigger balance sheets and can pay huge fines.

Last night I attended the event of the year. The people were exciting, the giving extraordinary and the hobnobbing with the great and the good (and the weird) made it a triple A event. Thankfully I avoided being mugged and am here to tell the tale.

Today's shorts:
Ivy Capital Catches Madoff Cold (wall street journal)
Hedge Funds To Leave Mayfair In Their Droves (ft)
Hedge Funds Are History (dealbook)
Despite Low GBP UK's Trade Gap Widens (times)
Coalition to introduce 100% tax rate (guardian)
Brown Defies Fintag And Mixes With The Plebs (bbc)

Today's longs:
Swaggering Asians Swagger (bloomerg)
Goldman Stanley Denies Goldman Stanley Contagion (emii)
Anarchy At The Greek Branch Of Goldmorgan Stanley (new york times)

Gossip:
Goldman Sachs to be renamed Cuddly Kittens.



Thursday, May 13, 2010

Is Dave a Maggie?

Mrs T

Mrs T © fintag


Today's shorts:
Fat Dutch Pensioners Make Nothing (global pensions)
USA extends its credit line (reuters)
Plunge Police Probe Plunges (new york times)
Unemployed > Employed in UK for first time (bbc)
UK: The second most expensive place to own a car (infectiousgreed)
Spanish PM does a Mrs Thatcher (guardian)

Today's longs:
Hedgies: The game is up (allaboutalpha)
EIM and the blonde skinny women with bad skin (telegraph)
Old Boss Says We Are Not Evil (financialnews)

News comments:
Marshall Wace are the biggest contributors to the Liberal Democrats so the UK government is financed by Hedgies. This is good because Vince Cable is in charge of beating up the banks and ensuring AIFM doesn't happen and Mayfair hedgies are given tax rebates and left alone by the FSA.

Alas the FSA isn't going to be ripped apart and this isn't good. Let's hope the Tories can convince the Liberals that this is necessary to ensure the Financial Services industry in the UK can continue to prosper and pay its taxes to fund the huge welfare state that Mr Grumpy left us all. Let us hope the Two Cs can do a Thatcher.

Good news is my Arki dinner table has been arranged and fun is to be had. The Killers are to play (whoever they are) and it is to be held south of the river. Let us hope the volcanic ash doesn't stop me from driving there. Should I take appropriate weapons? Isn't the south of London like Detroit on a good day? Maybe I won't go.

Prediction:
The FSA will give up its role of regulating the banks.



Tuesday, May 11, 2010

A New Beginning

A New Beginning

City Inn, Westminster © fintag


Today's shorts:
Europe: RIP (bloomberg)

Today's longs:
Germany: The new Europe (bloomberg)
David Cameron: The new Winston Churchill (telegraph)
ING: Proof Europe is fine and dandy (cityam)

News comments:
Gordon Brown. Hopefully I never have to type those two words ever again. For an unelected man who resigned twice as PM, who tried to scupper a coalition through his obstinate behaviour, who acted against the national interest and acted only for his own ego, who resigned as an MP because he couldn't stand mixing with the plebs, I can honestly say last night was a JFK, Princess Diana, 9/11 moment (but without anyone dying). Like having a huge boil lanced, the euphoria is overwhelming.

But that is old news. The new beginning is one of fear, denial and a nasty looking spreadsheet. The debt is still here and we are the whipping boys of Europe but we do have 3 leaders who will help sort it all out.

Interestingly all the leaders went to the best schools in the world. Cameron: Eton College (The Queen was delighted she could at last understand what her PM was saying when he told her he was forming a government. And of course he was at the same school as her grand children ...). Nick Clegg: Westminster. Harriet Harman: St Pauls. They are also part of the aristocracy. Harman is related to the Countess of Longford, Cameron to King William IV and Clegg to Baroness Moura Budberg.

At long last, order is restored in the upper echelons of society and we are to be once more ruled by the ruling classes. Karl Marx told us religion was the opium of the masses: today it is the welfare state. So come on rulers, sort out this once great country.

Gossip:
Election to be called in October. [Editor: You have already said this].



Monday, May 10, 2010

The national interest

Media bee frenzy

Media bee frenzy © fintag



Today's shorts:
Boris Big Bee (telegraph)
What is Eur750bn Give Or Take A Few Bureaucrats? (global pensions)
Stating The Obvious (allaboutalpha)
Drunk Hack Squabbles With Twat (cityam)
Fannie: Please Sir Can I Have Some More? (dealbreaker)
Small Hedgies Feel Discrimination (thehill)

Today's longs:
Who gives an AIFM (hedge funds review)
Another Ucits 3 Con Fund (finalternatives)
Paulson Closes Shop (ftalphaville)

News comments:
So the ECB thinks it's the US Fed? Seems so. Of course this big market excitement will soon subside as the electorates in Germany and France realise what is going on and burn their Santanders, 50 year old Port and Feta Cheese. The United States of Europe has through its own profligacy achieved what it always wanted, its own super bank. Long live the USE - it won't last long.

Whilst we all enjoyed the volatility, us Brits soon sank into a hideous depression when at 5pm Gordon Brown resigned. The stubborn old Scot has had the last laugh though. He is still an MP and will end up being Chancellor in the new LabLibDem coalition and Nick "two faced" Clegg will be PM. This combination will destroy my life and many of my friends, colleagues and hedgies.

The media and politicians are banging on about the national interest like bees around a honey pot. The definition of national interest appears to be giving the middle finger to the electorate and ensuring lots of website hits on newspaper websites.

If the voting system is to change, I suggest votes are handed out in proportion to tax paid. That means us hedgies and Investment Bankers get to run the country and Scotland can be spun off as a toxic asset SIV.

Gossip:
Whereas Tony Blair was made of Teflon, Gordon Brown is made of kevlar.



Sunday, May 9, 2010

Plastering over the cracks

Plastering over the cracks

Plastering over the cracks © fintag


Today's shorts:
Cabinet wallpaper choice more important than saving Mayfair (times)
California Crooks Cook (global pensions)
Goldman accused of hiring only ugly people (hitc)

Today's longs:
ECB is the new IMF (bloomberg)
Galleon Gallops (cityam)
The new world of poltical transparency: deals behind closed doors (cityam)
How To Launder $2.3 billion (bbc)
Hedgies of the world unite (aim)
15 days to save the UK (telegraph)
Chelsea help pay for a new yacht (mail)

News comments:
My prediction of 2Cs at the weekend came true. Clegg and Cameron? Conservatives and Chelsea? California and Calpers? Champagne and Crumpet? Something like that.

Onto matters more pressing. Most countries are run by coalition governments except the US and UK which prefers first past the post party rulers. This only really works with 2 large parties and because the UK's Labour party had gerrymandered the boundaries, employed 50% of the population as state stakeholders (mostly on benefits), the FPTP system has failed.

Such uncertainty in the UK where beards have to sit in the same room as suits and run a large government deficit is all very new to us.

A great opportunity to trash sterling of course but the big eyes are on the Euro. You see, when the banks had the prospect of huge bad debts, governments cleverly forced them to buy more government debt to boost their capital reserves. Money was printed too and the banks were saved and governments got to leverage themselves even more and show the world that there was demand for their debt and it was as safe as pantheons . This was fine whilst the sovereign debt was 100% guaranteed to be paid back but alas this is no longer the case for many.

So the banks tier 1 capital needed bolstering because of the CRAs turned the likes of the PIGS into junk debt, the banks hoovered up safer countries debt, the yields fell and the world turned into 2; the haves and the have nots (triple As that is).

If one adds the consumer debt issues, and there is only one way to go. Inflation. Interest rate hikes. More unemployment. Civil unrest. Punk 2.0.

So what should you do?

Buy more ammunition and baked beans.

Gossip:
Goldman to settle by hypnotizing the SEC.



Friday, May 7, 2010

Time to hide

Public shelter

Public shelter © fintag


Today's shorts:
Everything ...
NYSE revealed as a Toyota Prius (bloomberg)
UK's Ship Has No Captain (cityam)
GLGenders wins award (hedge funds review)
Paulson Agrees To Tie Himself Up (new york times)
Hedgies Get To Grips With RSS (ftalphaville)

Today's longs:
Hello USD, Byebye GBP (times)
HSBC forms coalition (icfa)
Anarchy In The UK (independent)
Asia Wobbles In The Wrong Places (bbc)

News comments:
I suggest you all hide in a nearby shelter until this post 1929 double dip crash repeat subsides. Watching the Dow toss and turn like an oil covered seagull and the UK electorate voting for uncertainty as I predicted yesterday, the next few months are going to be a mother. [Editor: Of what?]

Having just come back from the land of the unemployed and real estate lovin' balance sheet of Spain, it is clear the comfort of denial is being ripped apart. Yes, we are all fcked.

Today I am growing a beard and joining the Green party. It is time I learned how to spend other peoples money badly [Editor: Isn't that what you do now?] and accept that we are all socialists at heart. I shall pay 100% tax and work when ever I feel like it. If at all.

Gossip:
Another UK election to be called for mid July.



Thursday, May 6, 2010

Please vote for uncertainty

Please vote for uncertainty

Please vote for uncertainty © fintag


Today's shorts:
PIGS catch Greek Herpes (bloomberg)
UK is owed how much by Spain? (new york times)
Freddie: Please sir, can I have some more? (bbc)
Pie Charts For Fatties (allaboutalpha)
Tony Blair: World's First Billionaire Politician (thisismoney)

Today's longs:
Calpers wants its $1billion back from the CRAs (globalpensions)
Bear Stearns: Quotes From A Fraud (times)
Hedgies To Get Sex Changes (wallstreetandtech)
The Man With The Polaris Buys The Picasso (I Think) (new york times)
Financial Times To Vote BNP (orderorder)

News comments:
Freddie demands more money from the US taxpayer? Bear Stearns stating the obvious? For a moment I thought it was a bad dream but alas it is true. Sometimes the truth is unbearable; unpaid firefighters burning bankers to death or some of the largest yachts ever built moored up in Barcelona (photos tomorrow of me frolicking with dusty maidens but only if there is no hung parliament) or the world's most useless football team beating a money launderers team into securing a champions league place or a ludicrous amount paid for a second rate Picasso or Germany liking Greece bringing down the Euro because it means its Mercedes are cheaper abroad or ...

In the meantime, don't vote for certainty. A hung parliament is an event my models have never faced before and I want to test them out.

Gossip:
Bear Stearns really was a crap bank pretending to be a great bank.



Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Brown is the color

Brown is the color

Brown is the color © fintag

Today's shorts:
Cayne Says Poor Bridge Hand Was To Blame (bloomberg)
USD=EUR Says Pratt (bloomberg)

Today's longs:
Edsparr Says No And Pays The Price (new york times)
OZ Makes Paper Loss (hedgeweek)
OZ Hikes Rates Again (bloomberg)
US Taxpayers Give To The Greek Charity (paulkedrosky)
Greedy Gobshites (hitc)
Galleon Group Goes for Goldman (finalternatives)
EU To Investigate The CRAs (cityam)

News comments:
While Crete burns, the UK decides to elect its next Prime Minister. We all love uncertainty but not this one. I have lived under a communist state for the past 13 years and look forward to the London Wall falling down and the City embraced by the benefit lovin' hordes that soak up our tax revenues. Actually that doesn't sound right. But you know what I mean [Editor: Do we?].

Today I am off to a PIGS country, the one where it is sunny. As Volcanic Ash descends back over the UK, my fingers are crossed that I make it back for I shall only be packing one pair of Calvin Kleins. I will also we wanting to vote too although living in a ward where brown is banned as a color, my vote will count for little. But that is not the point for we should be forced to vote as in Australia. Democracy is not something we should take for granted because another 5 years of Brown and only those on benefits would get the vote next time.

Not that you gloating Americans should laugh. According to the Tax Policy Center, for the year 2009, 47 percent of U.S. households will pay no federal income tax. So at the next US election, Obama will probably have more non tax payers voting for a president tasked to help spend the tax revenue of the minority.

Tax payers of the world unite!

Gossip:
UBS to offer free hand jobs on the trading floor when quarterly results show a profit.



Tuesday, May 4, 2010

The storm is abating

Storm

Lying on my picnic blanket © fintag


Sorry

Sorry © fintag

Today's shorts:
Lord Peter to shoot Brown (telegraph)
Jordan fails to Win (telegraph)
BP: Oil to rise in price (bloomberg)
High earners to be hung (cityam)
United Continental (independent)

Today's longs:
Blackstone hire morons (emii)
Greece get credit card limit increase (bloomberg)

News comments:
Another fine weekend of sun, rain and gloves. This didn't stop me having a picnic in Hyde Park with my hareem, though, where we ate humble pie and enjoyed reading that the odds of Labour winning on Tuesday are 25/1 and Alan Johnson is related to Boris. So will next weekend be the 2Cs? Or perhaps a LLMU? All will be revealed. For sure, unelected and un-MP'd Lord Peter will be the new leader of the new branded old Labour party and from 1am on Friday will all be having fun trading gilts.

Greece has been bailed out and the Germans are shitting themselves that Portugal, Italy and Spain are next. So tell me, if PIS have contributed to bailing out Greece, will they have to contribute to bailing themselves out?

Is it me or am I a time traveler? Like Dr Who I seem to know what is going to happen but never act on it. He finds himself in front of the daleks and battles them as if her was living for the moment. The markets are living for the moment, enjoying the benefits of increasing corporate profits and falling bond volatility. But this is wrong.

Most developed countries are in big doo doo. Really big doo doo. I know that, you know that, but we have had enough of grim times so let us pretend it doesn't exist. Denial is a panacea for depressing times.

I know that David Cameron will win the UK election with a nice majority. George Osbourne with survive a year as Chancellor before private life indiscretions force him out of office. Lord Brown will be sectioned, Scotland annexed from England and all foreign lorries forced to pay a pound a mile on UK roads.

Gossip:
SEC to drop case against Goldman Sachs. [Only kidding ...]