Thursday, September 23, 2010

Predicting the future - 51% is all you need

49% of the time

51% Money Never Sleeps © fintag

News comments:
For those who play poker, the rule is simple - If you are wrong 49% of the time, you are a winner.

When I guessed who would play the roles in Money Never Sleeps (freep) all those years ago, I was almost right. I was 49% wrong. So here is another prediction: Vince Cable the UK's marxist Business Secretary will not be in his job this time next year. I don't who will but its likely we will have another Labour government minister. This coalition is on its last legs and after the rioting and disorder during the 2010 winter of discontent we shall have a slim majority government run by a Miliband or two.

The upshot will be even more disaster. Moodys will cut the UK's rating and despite Ed Miliband, the new Business Secretary, trying to smooth relations with rioting bankers and hedgies, the markets will continue to rise. Why? Because they are bored of recession and bankers need more bonuses.

Bonuses = f(Rising markets, Vince Cable bashing, Buying government debt)

Today's shorts:
Vince "Loose" Cable. (cityam)

Today's longs:
New Old Labour. (new statesman)

Gossip:
Alan Howard is ready to retire. Sometime in the future.

Worth reading:
Wax In, Wax Off (zerohedge)



Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Taxation for Dummies

Tax Dodgers

Tax Dodgers © fintag

News comments:
I don't do politics but I do like to expose weaknesses in arguments. Take this. The UK's Coalition deputy Nick Clegg has questioned use of accountants to cut tax bills (telegraph).

He says its unfair for the wealthy to use tax loop holes. Well as a member of government, shouldn't he address the fact there are loop holes? There is nothing illegal about interpreting law - that's why most law is so badly written and the legal profession makes a killing from it.

Nick, if you beat up the rich they will just leave. The UK Debt is in a big mess (telegraph) and these people generate wealth = tax revenues.

I see your best mate Vince Cableloose is going on about bankers bonuses (telegraph). Again.

Vince, each £1 in bonus is 50p to the treasury. Tax revenues = reduced debt.



Tuesday, September 14, 2010

The anarchy has started

The anarchy has started

The anarchy has started © fintag

News comments:
According to the media, anarchy is just around the corner. In the UK and maybe the USA too. There is a correlation between journalist expense accounts and perceived social unrest:

Today's shorts:
Courses in bare fist fighting have wait lists (telegraph)
IMF tells the West to buy ammunition and water (telegraph)
Iraq war cut short so troops can hose down restless US citizens (reuters)
BBC to arm its employees; internal memo says to shoot private sector workers (dailymail)
UK houses to be given away to people who have never worked (bloomberg)

Today's longs:
Software to blame for inaction of anarchists (bbc)



Monday, September 13, 2010

Sleeping On A Bus

Girl sleeping on a bus

Girl sleeping on a bus © fintag

News comments:
We are all being driven down a media led world of gloom and doom. For those of you sleeping you will soon wake up to a boombastic party. I reckon about 2 years time. My bus is buying distressed Florida condos, Asian Banks and anything that will break my teeth if I bite into it.

Today's shorts:
The FT, Wall Street Journal, Huffington Post, Telegraph, Daily Mail, CityAM, Reuters and Bloomberg

Today's longs:
Stuff that ends in "um".



Saturday, September 11, 2010

9/11

World Trade Center

World Trade Center 1997 © fintag


Time may pass but the memories are still strong. With a night club at the top and a decent pizza parlor in the basement, I spent much time whizzing up and down in the elevators. Much missed.



Friday, September 10, 2010

iPod: The new Aids

iDeath

iDeath © fintag / Michal Ozibko

News comments:
Apple is like the plague. Once cool, it is the new Microsoft. With the likes of Nokia having to sort out its CEO (ft), Google being the world's most polluting company (itproportal) and iPads selling more than the world's population (v3) it is clear we are all turning white. Or whiter.

But enough of this fancy. The media says dip and I say buy. We are at the bottom. Scrape it up for all the sludge will turn into pots of gold. Or platinum. Or wheat. Or copper. Or rare earth stuff.

Gossip:
Goldman Sachs to buy Metro Bank (uk).



Tuesday, September 7, 2010

UK Bank to be run by American

Bobby Shines

Bobby Geezer © fintag / barclays


Glad to see my old boss has moved up in the world. Bob Diamond. Geezer.



Monday, September 6, 2010

Tony Blair. The new Nigella Lawson?



So there I was in the gym and I got very confused.