Thursday, August 4, 2011

The Euro is subprime 2.0: The ECB the new AIG

Italy debt © fintag

News comments:
It is not in the UK's interest to see the Euro collapse as Europe is a huge trading partner.

It is, however, in the interests of free markets to ensure winners win; and losers lose. If the Euro is not right, it will be corrected.

The problem with the Euro is its a bit like a subprime ABS of old. The top tranche is Triple A (Germany mostly) and the rest is junk (especially France). However, as mentioned before it is in the interest of the USA for the Euro to fall and it is clear the Murdoch media in the US is scaring its population.

I learned today that most of Europe has no electricity, its people cannot afford shoes and they cannot speak English properly.

Take Italy. I have just had a delightful yacht and villa vacation and it is true the country is falling apart. It is a country of two halves (a bit like Scotland and England). The north is wealthy and the south is poor. And getting poorer as it is taxed to pay for parties.

On the surface the country is a mess. But looking at its debt to gdp ratio and it hasn't moved much in the last 5 years. So why now are yields shooting upwards? It is because when there is potential of growth, then leverage doesn't matter. That "hope" is enough to justify triple A sovereign debt. Once growth looks unlikely, the markets start looking at the debt realise, like subprime, that the underlying asset is worthless.

Thankfully it has the ECB to help it out. Italy makes payments to Brussels and in return gets a free insurance policy. Except the ECB is looking like AIG.

I was predicting a correction in September. Looks like an Italian teenager enjoying a passionate session with his girlfriend has come earlier than expected.

Today's shorts:
America puts the boot into Italy (mish)

Today's longs:
Contagion turns into a pandemic (telegraph)

The mafia to have a few words with someone.


Corp Tax said...

NFP beats expectations and U/E goes down by 0.01%...wooohoo...mkts are rallying...risk on Finbar. Forget Italy and Spain lol!!!