Us Brits love an underdog and it looks like the USA is going to come out on top.
We have had a habit of spotting the losers for a number of years (Bear Stearns, Greece, Obama) but sometimes out of the blue you get smacked (AIG, Madoff, MF Global).
Picking a winner is much more difficult. Over the next 5 years, the world tussle will be the USA, Chindia and Germanoluxberg. The land of the Euro is being beaten up and rightly so. It is shocking watching underdog countries punch above their weight before being found out in spectacular style. Germany is Europe and it has enjoyed the fruits of uncompetitive neighbours to bolster its GDP. But no more.
Obama has a great opportunity to kill off fortress Europe. Firstly he needs to spend more time in China, helping them ease their currency as well ensuring more US companies get to play in the land of the cheap slave. Secondly he should spend more time berating the Eurocrats for destroying the common market ideals of the EU. Thirdly he should state right now the USA is on Iran alert and get some allies together to remove the most dangerous threat to us all since the last dangerous threat to us all. Fourthly, he needs to find dirt on Mitt Romney because it looks like he is going to be the next president of the USA.
As for Chindia, I was lucky enough at the weekend to experience the hilarious Chinese at work. The occasion was posh and the wine was all French. Well the wine wasn't French but the bottles were. Some of the labels said Chateau Lafite and others said Chatooux Laffite. This is good news for France for the Chinese only drink their stuff. The prices for recent vintages are astronomical as shown on liv-ex.com and for those who fancy a long punt, this is where to put your money.
But enough of this ranting. Back to the bond markets ...
Refco and MF Global. Whose next? Better not speculate.