Friday, November 4, 2011

France is the next to fall

Greece debt © telegraph

News comments:
A nice simple graphic from the telegraph.co.uk.

As you can see, France needs to save Greece because it will lose most including its AAA. When France loses its rating, it can no longer be seen as an equal partner with Germany and will flounder in the markets going forward.

The 10yr Italian bond spread is the current market obsession, (bloomberg) and Italy does have a lot of debt. But France is the one no-one is looking at. The country has nearly 90% debt / GDP and its probably more. France relies on the CAP to survive and enjoys the rebates the EU gives it. No wonder it wants to introduce the tobin tax because its banks will soon be nationalised and so will be taxing themselves! The UK will of course be truly fckued given 80% of transactions come from London. Thanks Sarkozy.

But you still want to know about Greece. Well its stolen EUR300bn from the European tax payer. It cannot afford a new election. It should be left to fail. It's not a big deal. The Euro will survive. A lower currency for Greece will be good - tourism will come back from Turkey and like Iceland it will start over afresh.

Today's shorts:
Europe (wsj)

Today's longs:
USA (thiscantbehappening)

Gossip:
IMF to fund Obama's election campaign.



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