Wednesday, February 22, 2012

How to take over a country without force

Center of the universe © fintag

News comments:
You have to hand it to the technocrats.

They have pushed and pushed and got what they wanted. Greece has been taken over. It has lost its sovereignty and not a bullet was fired. Iran may think owning a nuke or two is the way forward but its not - they should hand out interest free credit cards to the West.

Greece is dying but not dead. It still has a trump card or two including leaving the Euro and the ECB taking a nice hit and the people electing a new radical government with no alliance to the EU. It will leave the Euro. The plastic knife ready to cut my leg off is in a picnic hamper in the basement. No pressure.

But behind this "technocrats versus the markets" is a story of real sadness. There is a lost generation of skilled Greeks, Irish and Spanish who are unemployed. Many are hungry and angry as we have seen. A bunch of old dinosaur farts who enjoyed the good times are destroying people's lives. Last time this happened in the West we ended up with a couple of World Wars.

So what is going on? Is the CDS market now dead given ISDA and the CRA's are trying to determine if Greece really is a SD? I mean what is a default? Many of my hedgie mates believe Greece has defaulted because it refinanced. Lawyers will have a field day.

While the media focus on riots, the ECB is handing out nice interest rates and safety and will then a few days later will be giving this to Greece for some technocrats to run. Banks tier 1 capital will really be junk. Marvellous!

Joy follows pain. Death follows a lingering blood letting.

So why the gloom? Well my home in Mayfair is being turned into a house. It seems Mayfair residential property yields trump commercial property yields and so I may have to move towards St Pauls and mingle with the Devil called Sachs.

Today's shorts:
Fitch downgrades Greece (reuters)

Obama buys votes (reuters)

Today's longs:
Buffet Berated By Bloomberg

German to become the new EU language.


farm land investment said...

Did you see today? The ECB has just started another round of LTRO to bail out the banks. Read some columns by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Daily Telegraph. I am British so a bit biased, but he's the best econ/finance columnist in the world. He's got some great pieces on what Germany is doing to Greece, and one on whether Greece should leave the Euro or not.