Wednesday, February 22, 2012

How to take over a country without force

Center of the universe © fintag

News comments:
You have to hand it to the technocrats.

They have pushed and pushed and got what they wanted. Greece has been taken over. It has lost its sovereignty and not a bullet was fired. Iran may think owning a nuke or two is the way forward but its not - they should hand out interest free credit cards to the West.

Greece is dying but not dead. It still has a trump card or two including leaving the Euro and the ECB taking a nice hit and the people electing a new radical government with no alliance to the EU. It will leave the Euro. The plastic knife ready to cut my leg off is in a picnic hamper in the basement. No pressure.

But behind this "technocrats versus the markets" is a story of real sadness. There is a lost generation of skilled Greeks, Irish and Spanish who are unemployed. Many are hungry and angry as we have seen. A bunch of old dinosaur farts who enjoyed the good times are destroying people's lives. Last time this happened in the West we ended up with a couple of World Wars.

So what is going on? Is the CDS market now dead given ISDA and the CRA's are trying to determine if Greece really is a SD? I mean what is a default? Many of my hedgie mates believe Greece has defaulted because it refinanced. Lawyers will have a field day.

While the media focus on riots, the ECB is handing out nice interest rates and safety and will then a few days later will be giving this to Greece for some technocrats to run. Banks tier 1 capital will really be junk. Marvellous!

Joy follows pain. Death follows a lingering blood letting.

So why the gloom? Well my home in Mayfair is being turned into a house. It seems Mayfair residential property yields trump commercial property yields and so I may have to move towards St Pauls and mingle with the Devil called Sachs.

Today's shorts:
Fitch downgrades Greece (reuters)

Obama buys votes (reuters)

Today's longs:
Buffet Berated By Bloomberg

Gossip:
German to become the new EU language.



1 comments:

farm land investment said...

Did you see today? The ECB has just started another round of LTRO to bail out the banks. Read some columns by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Daily Telegraph. I am British so a bit biased, but he's the best econ/finance columnist in the world. He's got some great pieces on what Germany is doing to Greece, and one on whether Greece should leave the Euro or not.