Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Greece is like Y2K

y2k © jesus christ

News comments:
The end of the world musings coming from the EU fed financial media is staggering.

Every article on Grexit says the following:

The world will enter a great depression of depression

France and Cyprus will starve to death

Right wing fascism will rise once more

Asia will put up a firewall and ban the use of English

Spain will nuke Argentina

All Greeks will emigrate to the UK for its weather and jobs

Pants.

Remember Y2K when the lawyers and IT consultancy's drummed up a moral panic of planes falling out of skies, nuclear plants exploding and Windows 95 turning into a blue screen nightmare?

Well nothing happened except lots of project managers were made redundant and many stressed out 2000 millenium party goers who thought it would be their last ever got to see 9/11.

Greece is being heralded as a Y2K disaster but this is totally wrong. There was a time when Prime Brokerage agreements only assumed a hedge fund would blow up. If a bank did we would be in armegedddon. And yet Lehman, Bear Stearns, AIG, Merrills et al blew up and we are all still here. The markets rallied soon afterwards.

Greece is leaving a currency. Big deal. Many countries have done it before. Yes, a few exposed banks and haircut bond holders will lose some money. The last people with the CDO parcel will be coughing up. They have been aware of the Greek problem for nearly 2 years. If they are still exposed the wrong way they should be reported to the regulators for incompetence.

Greece is tiny. The size of Maryland in the US (thanks for Bloomberg for telling us this factoid). It is over leveraged but deleveraging has been taking place whilst the EU and the french driven IMF in all their wisdom have given more blood transfusions than Simon Cowell has had waxing the hair off the back of his hands.

What Greece needs is a fresh start. Tourism.

Greece will create a new currency, peg it for a short time to the Euro and slowly devalue. Or as I would suggest it starts over with a big bang currency launch.

But that is dull. Here is some gossip:

Swiss banks are telling their customers they will be imposing a charge on deposits held. Yep, negative interest on your savings.

The Spanish King is flogging all his assets.

Twitter pre IPO stock is being hawked around by people who are not Goldman Sachs.

Today's shorts:
OHF liars get found out (SEC)

FB liars get found out (dealbreaker)

Today's longs:
Talk costs lives (reuters)

Gossip:
See above.



1 comments:

LondonMelbourneGirl said...

Nice work. You're rockin' again. Like the old days. Just as I'm emigrating back.