Friday, June 8, 2012

Spain to blame IFRS

© fintag

News comments:
You know when you cannot find your car keys.

You scour work surfaces and drawers, peek through the car window and stare at the drain below your feet. It is when you put you hand in your pocket to scratch that grional itch (I must go to the Doctor) and there they are.

Spain is like my lost car keys. [Ed: uh?] The country has no industry, 50% unemployment for those under 25, 15 years worth of empty real estate, 2 new unused airports and banks whose only collateral is Spanish real estate which has fallen 30% since the start of 2008. So why hasn't anyone ripped apart its credit rating? I mean Fitch waited until yesterday and the 10 yields still look reasonable. Why is Santander UK still safe (it maybe ringfenced but then so was Lehman's LBIE and that was raped by the US Lehmans the day before it crashed)?

Spain is not alone. The other basket cases are well known and the Euro project is a disaster.

Good to see some more sensible reporting on how the Euro will disintegrate (bloomberg).

Here are the three possible Euro outcomes:

Disintegration.

Disintegration.

Disintegration.

I still believe Germany will leave first though (fintag). Having had supper with the ex CEO of a German Bank at my current Italian favourite (its next to Zuma) last night, I was informed that this is what will happen. Straight from the horses mouth. Someone in the know. And they are not alone.

So tell me, why is anyone buying long dated Euro debt? The currency may not exist in 12 months time.

[Ed: So what about IFRS?]

Today's shorts:
Germany to win 2012 (maradona)

England to lose on penalties to Germany in the Semi Finals (guardian)

Today's longs:
Rich (shale gas reserves) versus Poor (a few antiquities) tonight (euro2012)

Gossip:
Spain to compulsory purchase all the Brit ex-pats living there.



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