Tuesday, July 3, 2012

When will Germany lose its AAA?

german car © fintag

News comments:
The new president of the EU is from Cyprus.

Cyprus as you know is being propped up by the Russians and is need of free bailout cash. Not much but enough to contribute to the death spiral that is Europe.

The sugar daddy that is keeping Europe together, Germany, is finding its inherited wealth being depleted. Although 15% of Germany jobs are in the luxury car industry which is booming as buyers from Asia buy the brand, German growth has stagnated. It would love to instigate a Keynesian shot of coke but this isn't possible because there isn't enough German coke to feed itself and nearly every other Euro country. The scientist euro-crats maybe trying to synthetically create some coke but the side effects are completely unknown. Germans don't do uncertainty hence their reluctance to use it.

Germany is in trouble. For example banks like partially nationalised Commerzbank are exposed to Spain to the tune of USD18 billion. It won't be buying anymore Spanish risk anytime soon so what do companies in Spain do to raise capital? They have to go to there local banks which are zombie bust. As the weaker European countries get weaker so does Germany.

The question is not if but when will Germany lose its AAA? The CRA's have been clever at undermining a countries sovereign rating by attacking the financial institutions that keep the blood flowing. As we have seen with Greece and Spain, once they are done with the banks, next it is the sovereign state. So when will it be Germany's turn?

Today's shorts:
The Vatican Bank (washington post)

Serco ends 50 year relationship with Germany (ft)

Today's longs:
Bobby Geezer swords himself (marketwatch)

France to close down its farming industry to help Germany (reuters)

Libor setting to be outsourced to Macau.


Anonymous said...

You used to be quite good with spelling and grammar. Who is writing this for you these days?

Anonymous said...

We are the hollowed out men...

redrut said...

Probably not for a while, they have the lowest detb in europe and a budget surplus


Anonymous said...

Germany has 41Million Workforce.

15% = 6.15 Million jobs?

you don't believe this shit by yourself or do you?

first i thought okay maybe there is Bosch(biggest car supplier in the world) included etc. but even that can't be 15%.

RSSP said...

The crisis does not care about how many AAA you have, in the current situation I will go with 50/50 that Germany can lose their "AAA status"