Thursday, December 27, 2012

2013: More of the same

time © god

News comments:
Having avoided the end of the world, there are 2 questions for 2013:

1, When RIM goes bust, what should I use instead of a Blackberry?

2, What shall I do with my GBP (Great British Peanuts)?

The answer to the RIM problem will play itself out I am sure.

The investment answer is an altogether more perplexing issue. Here are some ideas:

The EUR. Well my great euro short is still in place and with rates likely to go up next year, Greece will exit. The France-Germany relationship is bust and the debt cloud will once more blow up. However, those techno crats are canny at keeping their jobs and printing presses are an option they will use when the ECB starts to run the show so the EU zone may just plod along causing grief. As you know I now live in France for much of the year and have a vested interested in seeing the EUR collapse.

The USD. Thanks to shale gas, that never die die American attitude, and the no issue end of the world fiscal cliff moral panic, the USD is my favourite destination. Growth eats debt and pays tax and the US has this. The people maybe in turmoil but the huge weight of money just makes this the number 1 currency.

China. Still don't get it. Trade wars will reduce China to empty cities and minimum wage peasants and trade unions and red tape making it an expensive place to exploit.

The JPY. Safe as houses built on foundations of sand. A sure bet.

Equities. Time to take the long view. Buy and hold with a 2 year horizon. Whereas you all love high frequency curve riding, the exchanges will soon be putting a stop to it. Mark my words.

Fixed Income. There is this odd belief that bonds are safe and those discredited price setting rating agencies know what they are doing. Much is junk but with low rates, default is low. Inflation is being held back by the banks who cannot lend but when they do, inflation will be the order of the decade and rates will go on up and up.

London Prime. No bubble here. London is the best city in the world and unless it floods it will continue to be the bond street of real estate. Rental yields are non existent but capital appreciation will continue if at a more modest pace.

Technology. Long Google Short Apple. Data is king. A white aluminium brick in the pocket versus a Samsung chip behind the ear. A no brainer.

Commodities. Volatile but more roulette than black jack.

And that is it. FX is the key trading strategy for 2013.

Today's shorts:
Fiscally dull (reuters)

Today's longs:
Taxing the islands (reuters)

Gold 2012 (resourcespots)

More celebs to die in 2013.


t said...

RIMM will disappear at the end of March but the trusty blackberry will come back from the dead 3 days later in a remarkable feat of biblical symmetry.

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