Friday, January 25, 2013

Fun, No Fun, No Future

apple © facebook


News comments:
What an exciting start to 2013.

As predicted (fintag), Apple is going the way of Microsoft (fun, no fun, no future) and us shorties are having a rallying time (ft). With even the ludicrous Bank of America saying bonds are overbought (told you so), yield curves are twitching with rates poised to move on up, all this news and excitement is just what the doctor ordered.

The even more ludicrous ECB which like the FED has caused no end of printing problems (told you so) ignoring the signs that all is not well in EU (the Spanish have taken over London and the East Europeans are no longer required), human tradegy and lost futures are irrelevant when it comes to keeping bankers happy. The currency battles (reuters) are making this a great year of volatility.

Take the UK (bbc). It has no plan A. It has no plan at all. The first plan was to cut the deficit and unlike Ireland, the UK has cut in all the wrong places and debt is still rising. Taxes up and down, railways no one wants, airports in the wrong places that no one wants, an armed services that no one wants, a bloated and irrelevant NHS that only tourists seem to enjoy, and today its in a triple dip. Of course the useless ONS will probably report adjustments figures next week (fintag 2011) which is why GBP has hardly twitched. Exciting times indeed.

We have Goldman doing what it does best (says one thing and does another) with Spanish buy signals (bloomberg) and old business models at last starting to fall apart (from HMV to the FT.)

All this confusion is just what we all need to kick start some excellent alpha and pay for some decent lunches in 2013.

Today's shorts:
Davos snow (bloomberg)

Today's longs:
Hamptons (zerohedge)

Gossip:
Apple to launch new phone that isn't a phone (yawn).



Friday, January 18, 2013

Banks: Cheating to make it a level playing field

devil © fintag

News comments:
Sometimes principles have to be thrown out with the baby's water. Whatever.

Banks. Well it is time to start looking at investing in these traffic warden realtor run government sponsored wheel greasers. The regulators (and here I include Twitter) are controlling the banks and with easy access to free money they are slowly reformatting their dinosaur systems and business processes and starting to look like equity longs.

We never recommend stocks but if we did, then there are a few banks that are looking truly undervalued. Some will perform and others will be gobbled up. Bank of America. RBS. Morgan Stanley.

The sudden interest in bank fundamentals is one of the many catalysts that are driving the equity boom. Bonds are phut and inflation and rate hikes are on their way. Whether Japan is threatened with a few nukes to put rates up to get its peanut currency up by the US car industry, or Bernanke admits he has failed in the great USD devaluation trick, the flattened yield curves are starting to twitch like a horny teenage in a nightclub. Equities are the new porn.

Banks are cheaters and they do it in numbers. Its just the way it is and it will be in the future. From the Medici bank to Goldman Sachs, they attract people who are encouraged to cheat. But if the "regulators" are overseeing the checks and balances, they guilt can be put in a drawer.

Yep, banks are the new London super prime. Up up and away.

p.s. I note the Livestrong cycles in my gym are being used again.

Today's shorts:
Citi America (marketwatch)

Today's longs:
Morgan Stanley (nyt)

Gossip:
Oprah to launch series of confessional interviews starting with the CEOs of the banks.

AA to do a GAP and abandon its seagull logo.



Monday, January 14, 2013

Biggest baddess bubble busting bond bashing blast since 2003

useless man © fintag

News comments:
Just come out of a hairy "what are we going to do in 2013" meeting.

As you know, "one strategy" hedge funds go in and out of fashion like a handbag. 2012 was the year of the bond fund, thanks to QE and printing press techno crats. My distressed debt (i.e cheap as chips) mates don't know what a recession is but they will do this year.

Goldman says jump into equities and off we all jump. Why? Bonds are so dull and equities are so on the risk. Is 2013 the new 1982? Well something is for sure and that is most hedgies will be wearing heels this year because men, as in everything in life it seems, are useless fund managers (dealbook). Us men love risk and vol whereas the more sensible woman actually manages your money instead of throwing it all on red. But no need to have that sex change op just yet.

As you know, because we keep telling you, the next 5 years is going to be the biggest baddess bubble busting bond bashing blast since 2003 (bloomberg). Leverage is up and leverage means risk means casino means my ladyboy phase will be short lived.

When Wall Street fires Equity staff (bloomberg) you know its time to buy.

Today's shorts:
Crap debt (fa)

Today's longs:
Casino bets (hedgeweek)



Thursday, January 3, 2013

Credit Crunch Porn

credit is back © fintag

News comments:
Can you feel it? Well it's coming.

The US maybe bankrupt, but we are now tolerating debt of such high levels that the upshot will be even more tolerance and even more debt. It has been impossible to get any sort of leverage from the Banks (I mean even cash rich Vodafone has been thinking about turning itself into a bank, Rolls Royce funds all its suppliers and Hector "zzzz" Sants gets a knighthood) but boredom is helping release all that hard earned quantitative easing cash back into the hands of those who need it to help kickstart the next big bubble.

Nationwide (a UK bank) is offering 95% mortgages and rumours are more banks will be offering starter kit debt packages in 2013. As you can see from my most recent junk mail, Barclays are keen to move my debts to them (although with Mr Sants the new compliance officer at Barclays he should stop this sort of mis-selling - 0% on balance transfers with a near 3% upfront hidden fee) (guardian), like a compacted turd its [Ed: Stop]

The only winners of fiscal cliff money printing are those who deserve it most ...(forbes) ...and as we have said before the next credit bubble will make a 100% debt/ratio look like a low risk product.

Not since 2006 have I felt such stirrings in my loins ...time to beg borrow and blow ...

Today's shorts:
Cancer (bloomberg)

Today's longs:
banks to lend more (reuters)

Credit porn (ft)

Credit Unions are the new wonga (dorset)

Gossip:
ECB to be renamed European Credit Bank.