Thursday, April 25, 2013

Mixed Sex Accommodation - Time to party

MSA and all that © fintag

News comments:
While you all jerk off to the latest Twitch, I have been mining data.

And so it is learned today there have been major breaches in UK hospitals; shock horror, men and women have been forced to sleep in the same room without permission. Of course the data we were all looking at was the non triple dip GDP numbers for the UK. The markets liked the "estimate" and so it seems the USD is Apple and GBP is Samsung. Until tomorrow.

The ONS never gets its numbers right and readjusts them. But like a fake AP tweet, we take it on the chin and move on. The sad reality is some of the numbers coming out like the number of Spanish who have no job is truly horrific. No wonder the Euro dream is coming to an end.

In the meantime, we long equities and short bonds. Until the next twitch when it will reverse and then swing back again. Despite being an Economics major I am as confused as nearly everyone else as to what is going on. So best to start mining some more, Bitcoins that is.

Today's shorts:
Rampant UK ready to hike rates (reuters)

Socialist says spend (guardian)

Today's longs:
US run out of jobs (bloomberg)

Gossip:
UK to outsource its statistical data to China.



Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Tobin's FTT is already here in the UK

Not the serial killer © fintag

News comments:
The last time I bought some UK equity there was a tax to pay. So not sure what all this Tobin FTT tax moral panic is all about.

Stamp duty (hmrc) is payable and has been for years (since 1986 at least). It stands at a hefty 50bips and you can pay up to 150bips. Such a Tobin tax has created volatility and a market in tax avoiding securities such as CFDs so beloved of spreadbetters. So I dont know what all the Tobin FTT fuss is all about. France tried it and they raised enough revenue to fund Hollande's illegal mistress trips to Bond Street.

If an FTT is introduced there will be ways round it. I can think of a few already and I am sure ICAP (IAP.L) have some lined up to.

The whole debacle is a nasty political attack on the UK because unlike Stamp Duty which goes to the Treasury to pay for civil servants pensions, the FTT will go off to fund some non elected eurocrats lunch expense account.

Another nail in the EU coffin. Time to vote for UKIP ...

Today's shorts:
Italy says no (ea)

Today's longs:
UK lawyers look to another good year (lawyers)

Gossip:
Bitcoins to be taxed (not sure how but the EU will try)



Friday, April 19, 2013

The Gold Bubble moves towards 700

Way on down © fintag

News comments:
So you are long Gold, eh?

The gold market has been rigged longer than Libor but no regulator wants to tackle that one. So in the meantime lots of smart people have been talking up that great inflation hedge, gold, when actually there hasn't been much inflation despite money supply expansion via printing presses; it seems the lack of real demand in the economy is apparently why the West is heading towards Japan like deflationary living.

Meanwhile, those with a Twitter like attention spans only have to look at the attached picture to see that Gold is just one huge bubble that has been puffed up by the likes of Paulson, Pimco and other Goldman Sachs long tooths who poo poo Bitcoins and still look at Gold as the worlds true currency.

If you were starting out to trade for the first time, would you be punting on Gold?

Complete madness but the emperor has started to peel back his new clothes and guess what? He is nearly naked and waving a 700 flag at you.

Today's shorts:
Down down down (reuters)

Paulson's one trick pony exposed (reuters)

Today's longs:
Someone explains what a bubble looks like (bloomberg)

Gossip:
Bitcoin exchange attacks are the work of Gold lovin' governments.



Wednesday, April 10, 2013

The Bitcoin frenzy and why gardening is the new black

Champagne © fintag

News comments:
Bitcoin mania is with us and I am late to the party.

If I had bought a bag in March I would now be able to pay for Obama's 2014 budget.

You probably know what they are all about (one of 21 million emails with value kept in password protected encrypted wallets - oh and if you forget your password then the Bitcoin dies) or you don't (aren't currencies meant to have an underlying asset such as gold and act a bit like a derivative?). Even so there are lots of views. Of course in the world of trading we love bubbles as long as we enter and exit at the right time. When Goldman Sachs have pointed their computing power to mining these coins and rumors abound they are looking to set up a fund, you have to take it all seriously and mingle like crazy. Even while I type this I could have probably made 2%. East India. Tulips. Madoff.

Its a great wave to be on. Once the AML and KYC has been sorted and the Japanese custodian bank has accepted your real currency, then away you go and off to trade on a nasdaq lite exchange called mt.gox. There are no spreads so its a bit wild west and its clear 21 million will not be enough to create a true liquid currency (unless its broken down into itcoins, tcoins, coins, oins, ins, ns and s units) but long term this could be getting early google / microsoft / apple stock for the price of really coming to terms with a currency being bits and bytes instead of paper and a promise.

It is fintag's sudden realization that the worlds currencies are just bits of paper with "hope" value and printing and inflation will soon wipe out most of the indebted world (Argentina et al) and so force us all into gardening. And farming. You see, once the USD is worth paper, it won't be a good substitute for real food.

Unless of course you have a pile of Bitcoins in which case you will run the world, while the rest of you will be forking the ground, scattering seeds and praying for rain.

Today's shorts:
Bitcoins to be North Koreas new currency (businessinsider)

The Magic Tricks of Guff and Oxygen Exchange (mtgox.com)

Today's longs:
Bitcoin billionaires are the new hippies (businessinsider)

Gossip:
Goldman Sachs to launch a Goldcoin note that sits on top of a box of air (subprime 2.0).



Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Austerity FCA

fcuka © fintag

News comments:
Maybe I was asleep or trying to avoid the death of Winston Thatcher but I came across the new FCA's website.

I thought I was on some kids school project wordpress website until I saw the news link about investigating the failings of the Royal Bank of Shite and then it made sense. The old FSA website looked a bit too flash and nobody wants a regulator flashing off its wealth. So they must have used some interns who don't know what a websafe color is (pink maroon purple?) and have done a Windows. A new layer on top of the old bloat ware.

But this is dull for austerity is everywhere. But what is interesting is the website is no longer a .gov. The FCA is a regulator that is a .org. The sec is sec.gov. It smacks of enforcement.

The FCA (and you still have to type in www) is www.fca.org.uk. Now lots of periods / full stops on my Z10 blackberry isn't easy. But that is also dull.

Here is wiki's definition:

"The domain extension was originally created for non-profits, but today it is commonly used by schools, open-source projects, communities, and for-profit entities. The number of registered .org domains have increased from less than one million in the 1990s, to ten million as of June, 2012."

And I was told today if you want to set up an FCA regulated entity it will take between 8 and 10 months.

Wow. The UK has returned back to the 1970s when you had to go on a waiting list to get a phone from British Telecom. Until Thatcher came along and sorted that mess out.

But like the cyclical markets, socialism comes and goes. Now that is more interesting. My portfolio has a long position in First Trust China AlphaDEX. A communist play with the ticker FCA.

How ironic. How random.

Today's shorts:
Death to the hybrid (bloomberg)

Fintag wrong about the new logo (fintag)

Today's longs:
Banker drops his trousers (reuters)

Accountants for hire (reuters)

Gossip:
FCA to put pictures on its website of non white people when it sorts out which skin color goes with maroon.