Friday, May 24, 2013

Monkey Portfolio Random 10 UK

monkey© google

News comments:
How to make 2% in a week by randomly selecting some UK stocks.

The equity markets are booming and you don't need to be a C# jockey to make money. No need to short or hedge. Enjoy the boom and trade because it will be over later this year.

As noted in my last post, my excel spreadsheet has randomly (ok with a small amount of bias and weighting and manual over ride) pumped out 10 UK listed stocks. I will buy GBP100,000 of each on the close price today (24 May 2013) and sell on the close next Friday and be at least GBP20,000 better off (and that's with a bank holiday too!). If this works out I will select some US stocks the week after (saves me having to use my brain with another outrageously witty blog post that will feature as another Bloomberg / FT headline) and demonstrate that you only need to click a few buttons and spend the rest of the week lying in bed.

So here goes ...

AV.L
TATE.L
VOD.L
GFS.L
SAB.L
LLOY.L
IOF.L
BABS.L
GOG.L
IJPH.L


Gossip:
Goldman to replace its OEMs (overpaid equity morons) [Ed: Steady] with UEMs (underpaid equity monkeys).



Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Apple won't be in my random top 10

apple inc © fintag

News comments:
As has been on the cards for years, corporates are the new governments.

I am not a fan of high polluting Apple (fintag) but Tim Cook's performance yesterday (bbc) was stellar. His middle finger to the US government's high corporate rates of tax showed the hypocrisy of other governments who bang on about tax evasion when what they really want is the spread to be much smaller between countries. All this "fair share of tax" nonsense; nobody wants to answer the simple question:

How much tax is fair?

Personally I think 0% is a fair number because on the whole people spend better than governments but that is a political and moral issue. In the end the rules and laws govern what the tax should be and unless some global body with nuclear weapons bullies countries like Ireland and Cayman into collecting more tax then the tax issue will never be solved. If there is a problem at all. What if Ireland collected 35% tax, the US would still be in the same position except their favorite stock that makes up most of their pensions would be worth 35% less. Cake. Have. Eat.

If I were Apple I would buy an island like the Caymans and then put its corporate tax rate up to 50% (with rebates of 50% to those who are already there) and then nobody could complain. Apple could then legitimately complain to the rest of the world that they are tax havens and the US et al exist only to help tax evaders and avoiders.

The reality is ultra aggressive tax evasion should be encouraged as it will help those who govern draft better legislation. This is all a sideshow to cover up the fact Governments are so badly managed.

But this is dull. What isn't dull are the equities markets. To show you how easy it is to make money I will put my balls on the line and pick 10 stocks and buy them at the open price on Monday and sell on the close on Friday. My hurdle will be 2%. That is 2% in a week.

I won't fail. The stocks selected at random will be US and European stocks including some ETFs. My excel random number generator is ready to go.

Today's shorts:
Xbox revealed to pay no tax (bloomberg)

Today's longs:
Japan will be one of my randon 10 (bbc)

Gossip:
Trading is a mugs game.



Friday, May 17, 2013

Les bons moments sont de retour

asterix parc
© fintag

News comments:
When there is madness in the air, it is time to make a killing.

We may all complain that this free liquidity environment is stoking up the mother of all crashes (fintag gets it wrong) but if you haven't joined the party it is time to load up and splurge on alpha.

Take that van for hire business, Ocado. You know my views but we are here to make money so hats off to those Goldmanites who just never gave up and have made my day (bloomberg - 50% gain). Best to follow the Goldman rule of trading - bitch and buy or smile and short. You know what I mean.

Take France. The man at the helm is a 1950's Harold Wilson without the charisma and his country is dying in a cess pool of misery. And yet it is the place to live (which is why I spend much time here too spending my bitcoins on the lonely women of Cannes [Ed: Surely not?]). You see France is a bit like Ocado was yesterday (foothillsoffrance) for tomorrow it will be a big boom country. Trust me, it will. When a hedgie says the country is on the verge of anarchy (telegraph) it's time to buy (especially if you loved Asterix as a child).

In the meantime, throw your darts at a list of tickers and take your pick (although skew away from oil if you can) and with your profits you too could snap up a castle ....

Today's shorts:
You tell me ...

Today's longs:
Anything but government debt

Gossip:
Hedge funds to abandon shorting.



Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Hedge funds are one trick ponies with suicide vests on

One trick © fintag

News comments:
There is something not quite right at the moment. My long only throw-a-dart equity fund is up double digit percent and yet most hedge funds, trading in unprecedented bull markets, are either down or flat (hfr).

So when we read hedge funds are the new banks, lending to companies the way banks used to (these days they prefer to take free money and pretend to lend it out but never actually do so they can write off their bad debts and pay themselves bonuses for saving their banks and pushing up the stock price for the benefit of even more stock option in the money pay days) with a USD108bn pot (bloomberg) it becomes obvious your average hedge fund is so crap that they are having to buy crap bonds and build up their own sandwiches of subprime debt so they can pass the parcel and sell it to each other for mtm fantasy values.

Yes, subprime is back (reuters) and the crap burger full of horsemeat is the only long on the street.

As those gods of profit start to look like one trick ponies (inside trading anyone? Gold is the new black?), the likes of Paulson and Bill "Thinking Big" Ackman (marketwatch) have truly been shown to have lost their touch. Shame they couldn't get out at the top like Sir Alex Ferguson. Or Bill Gross.

When hedge funds start to panic and buy crap nobody wants ("I am ex goldman and I own the markets"), it starts to feel like LTCM all over. Hedge funds are leveraging off each other (directly and indirectly) and with all these regulation chains being strapped around the big banks, the hedge funds are being given free reign to lend like there is no tomorrow. Once they get into the private equity circle of life, there can only be one outcome. Crash.

In the meantime, enjoy the Bernanke / Draghi / Nippon GinkĊ and tuck into those safe as houses ETFs built on sand and hedge fund hot air.

Today's shorts:
Fcku the paper I want the real stuff (zerohedge)

Today's longs:
Slumming it in London - time to move to Japan (guardian)

Gossip:
Man Utd to be relegated next season.



Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Apple creates the world's largest ever equity swap

HK iBond © fintag

News comments:
2009...
"We fully support the legislation … on offshore tax centers, and we look forward to working with you as part of the broader effort to address international tax evasion and close the tax gap," Geithner told the House.

2013...
CEO of Apple, Tim Cook (TC): Just got another call from a hedge fund manager screaming for a dividend cos' he got his short wrong.
CFO of Apple, Peter Oppenheimer (PO): Just been sent an email from Microsoft saying they are looking to buy us out because they see us as a distressed stock.
TC: Looks like we have got to get our stock price up and pay some dividends. Any ideas?
PO: Not sure about dividends as once you pay them the investors expect them to go up every year. And anyway, our cash is stuck offshore and if we bring it to the US, our tax liability will bring us down. What we need is to flip their equity into debt.
TC: How do we do that then?
PO: We call a friendly bank with lots of free ECB, BoE and Fed cash wanting to lend it out at a few bips and then we use this to buy back truck loads of our stock. We then issue debt and pay the banks back and pay the coupons with US generated income.
TC: So we get to keep our rainy day cash in Cayman. Excellent.
PO: Its what I call the iSucker trade. We can continue to avoid paying tax, use free printed money provided by our new best investment banking friends who will do us favors and ensure their analysts pump out Buy recommendations, we keep our jobs, our stock options come into the money and everyone is a winner.
TC: Using government money to pump up our stock price... Jobs would be proud of you.

Today's shorts:
Tax avoiders win again (reuters)

Today's longs:
Goldman wins again (wsj)

Gossip:
Google to launch new Glass for people with one eye called a video camera.