30SEP08:
31DEC08 INDICES:
FTSE100:3550
DOW30:7550
# HEDGE FUNDS:4425 30JUN08: Oil to be USD200 by 30OCT08 USA Inflation to be 7.5% by 30OCT08
...oops 23APR08:
Next Rights Issue:
HBOS...yes
All & Lec ...
...1 Nil. 17APR08: Oil to be USD127 by 30SEP08
...16MAY08 losing my touch 27FEB08:
2 Banks go bust by 30JUN08
BS down, Lehman (a bit late I know) 20NOV07: Northern Crock to be sold for 15p
Nationalized 01NOV07: Oil to be USD103 EOM
...peaked too soon 08OCT07:
SEC to fine Goldman for pricing issues
...still waiting 15JUN07: ML to buy-out BS
JPM got there first 06JUN07: The Big Crash: 17OCT07
...well it's here
Today I have decided to keep my opinions to myself and express them visually. August is the silly season and it seems sensible to join in. Today's news covers Welsh pop singers, the consolidation of the banking industry and why Goldman Sachs is at last feeling some pain. The USA starts to ban short selling, oil is back in Vogue and Michael Phelps eats 12,000 calories a day and looks pretty good on it.
I looked at the book CityBoy yesterday. It is written by an anonymous analyst who has a large ego and the mind of a fantasist. As soon as I read the word "Wonga" I knew it was time to put it down. It's no Liars' Poker I am afraid. If you want to really know what goes on in the dirty and sexy world of finance, come on down and read me. I too have a large ego and am a complete fantasist but then I am only 5 years old which is why I never talk about the sex but just the dull stuff.
That always happens past my bedtime. Any anyway, mummy hasn't explained what reproduction is.
This little ditty was sent in by one of our readers, 'Lady of the City'. It should be sung to the tune of Bonnie Tyler's 'Total Eclipse of the Heart'.
Olivant, Every now and then we get in some trouble and you come round Olivant, Every now and then we get in some trouble and you want to break us up Olivant, Every now and then we get so worried that the best of years are passing us by ....
Fintag says Here is my 2 minute attempt:
BANKS
Banks, huh, yeah What are they good for Absolutely nothing Uh-huh Banks, huh, yeah What are they good for Absolutely nothing Say it again, y'all
Banks, huh, good God What are they good for Absolutely nothing Listen to me
Ohhh, Banks, I despise Because it means destruction Of innocent lives
Banks means tears To millions of citizens eyes When they all go to court And lose their homes
I said, Banks, huh Good God, y'all What are they good for Absolutely nothing Say it again
Banks, whoa, Lord What are they good for Absolutely nothing Listen to me
Banks, it ain't nothing But a heartbreaker Banks, friend only to Ben Bernanke Ooooh, Banks It's an enemy to all mankind The point of Banks blows my mind Banks has caused unrest Within the financial generation Induction then destruction Who wants to go bust
Aaaaah, Banks-huh Good God y'all What are they good for Absolutely nothing Say it, say it, say it Banks, huh What are they good for Absolutely nothing Listen to me
Banks, huh, yeah What are they good for Absolutely nothing Uh-huh Banks, huh, yeah What are they good for Absolutely nothing Say it again y'all Banks, huh, good God What are they good for Absolutely nothing Listen to me
Banks, they ain't nothing but a wank Banks, they's got one friend That's Ben Bernank-ee Ooooh, Banks, have shattered Many a young couples dreams Made them bankrupt, bitter and mean Life is much to short and precious To spend fighting Banks these days Banks can't give credit It can only take it away
Ooooh, Banks, huh Good God y'all What are they good for Absolutely nothing Say it again
Banks, whoa, Lord What are they good for Absolutely nothing Listen to me
Banks, they ain't nothing but a heartbreaker Banks, friend only to the central banker Loans, Deposits and understanding Tell me, is there no place for them today They keep on writing off lots of toxic crap But Lord knows why it took them so long
Ooooooh, Banks, huh Good God y'all What are they good for You tell me Say it, say it, say it, say it
Banks, huh Good God y'all What are they good for Stand up and shout it Nothing
[HAT TIP TO EDWIN STARR]
Pretty lame eh? You can tell that August is the "lack of real news" season.
VOTERS TO DECIDE FATE OF SHORT SELLING IN SOUTH DAKOTA
South Dakota voters will decide in November whether to end short selling in the state in the first ballot initiative of its kind as the Security and Exchange Commission's temporary ban on certain types of short selling for 19 companies ended this week.
The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association said it opposes the ballot initiative on the grounds that it violates securities law and Sifma is building a strategy to convince state residents to oppose it.
Fintag says As I said yesterday, the USA is turning into a communist state. Thankfully we have the internet, offshore companies and a global market to counteract this act of stupidity. Shorting has been around since time began ...it is good for market liquidity. If you take away shorting then the spreads for longs widen. But this is still silly because you can still buy and sell options and futures; or are these to be banned next?
SWING BACK TO BANK STOCKS IS OVERDONE, SAYS MERRILL LYNCH
The fashionable investment tactic of the past month - buying bank stocks while selling energy companies - could already have gone too far, Merrill Lynch, the financial management group, warned clients yesterday.
In mid-July, hedge funds, pension funds and other institutional investors dramatically reversed their enthusiasm for energy stocks and loathing for financials in an abrupt about-turn that sent bank shares soaring and oil and gas companies sinking.
But Merrill said yesterday that the unwinding of the classic bet of the credit crunch may already have been overdone, giving warning that banks across Europe could still be forced to raise between $70 billion (£37 billion) and $120 billion in new equity on top of the $120 billion already raised. Barclays and HBOS looked most vulnerable among UK banks to having to go back to their shareholders for more equity on top of the £4.5 billion and £4 billion, respectively, already raised.
Fintag says Someone asked me yesterday what I was shorting. Here is the answer:
And here is why the short financials / long commodities trade has still way to go (thanks to Bush who has invaded provided aid to Georgia)
finfacts says " Markets News Afternoon: Stocks in sharp slide in Europe and US on renewed credit worries; Oil price rises to $115 in New York "
Remember the good old days? Ahhh, a simpler time, when we were repeatedly told that sub-prime didn't matter, that it was contained, that the losses were a mere $60 billion dollars at most, and overall, this would have zero impact on the broader economy?
Only not so much.
Fintag says Sorry for linking to the picture but it is a very visual way of seeing why banks are being shorted so heavily. However, it would be better to see this as a percentage of balance sheet net assets but then analysts never get anything right.
U.K.-based hedge fund incubator PCE Investors has reportedly added four new managers to its stable.
Three of the new managers are private equity funds, Financial News reports. The firm boasts a laundry list of predominantly hedge fund managers and has had only one p.e. shop as a client, London's CD Capital.
George Cadbury, PCE's president, declined to comment on the new inclusions, citing compliance issues.
Fintag says Wow. I thought this business model was completely dead. The news is full of stuff that is fantasy. Take this hedge fund letter that is doing the rounds:
The new BlackBerry Bold is touted as an 'Apple iPhone killer'. The battle for the hearts, minds and wallets of mobile phone owners enters a new phase this weekend with the launch of the BlackBerry Bold.
Fintag says Here is my view. The Apple looks great. But it doesn't synch to Microsoft Exchange so the mail is poor and is useless if you have long finger nails. The screen smears a lot if you are a nose picker. The Blackberry has a better name but is a known to be correlated to the increasing divorce rate and broken front teeth from addicts walking into lamp posts. It is rubbish for music but the encrypted email functionality is second to none.
If the iPhone were an Alpha Romeo, the Blackberry would be a Mercedes Benz.
INVESTORS FROM DOWN UNDER START AN £80M CALEDONIAN GOLD RUSH
It could be the stage set for a western. A rusting narrow gauge railway, its sleepers encrusted with sediment, twists its way into the mouth of a rough-hewn mine in a blank stretch of cliff. Inside, rusty wagons sit dead on the rails.
This derelict goldmine under Beinn Chuirn 50 miles north of Glasgow could be revived this month when a diamond-tipped drill starts boring into its rocks, heralding a modern gold rush in the Scottish Highlands. An Australian-backed mining company believes there are deposits throughout the Grampian mountains.
The Bank of England says it expects the UK economy will not grow at all over the next year or so.
In the Bank's gloomiest assessment yet, governor Mervyn King said that he expected growth "to be flat" and did not rule out a recession.
He warned inflation would peak at 5%, making it hard for the central bank to cut interest rates in the near future.
Fintag says Why are they so cagey? We are not stupid. Inflation is much higher than the statistics (tinkered around in the 1980's) because they don't reflect people's real spending patterns (do you buy a DVD player every month?). The people are looking glum. It is tough out there. Why do we need Bennie Hill to tell us this in such a convoluted way? The people have hangovers.
Ron Insana made a big name for himself reporting and interviewing Wall Street hotshots as an anchor on CNBC. But so far, his foray into the hedge fund world hasn't been such a hit. Nevertheless, Mr. Insana has reportedly landed a new position at one of the hedge-fund industry's most prominent firms: SAC Capital.
CNBC itself reported early this week that Mr. Insana, who left his full-time job at the network in 2006 to start Insana Capital Partners, was winding up his fund-of-hedge-funds. He'll be taking a job as a managing director at SAC, which is led by Steven Cohen and oversees about $15 billion in assets.
Insana's fund, called the Legends Fund, never got nearly so big.
Fintag says
Imagine that. A journalist gets to run a hedge fund. It is more unbelievable than a Hedgie trying to be a journalist [Editor: And a mighty poor one too, despite what the Finbar Babes say]
The commodity half of oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens's BP Capital hedge fund lost 35 percent of its value in July, the New York Post said, citing sources.
The fund is believed to be down about 10 percent for the year, the paper said.
Fintag says That's right. Let us celebrate his failure (which is minor). This man is a legend who has made so much money, we should be celebrating his success. Oh that's right. The USA is a communist state where all citizens are equal and profit is for the devil.
here is the city says " Goldman's Third-Quarter Could Be 'One Of Its Worst As A Public Company' "
Tarzana, Calif.-based Martin Asset Management, an alternative investment management boutique, has launched exchange-traded fund strategies that it says replicate hedge fund returns without the risks, fees, lockups and non-transparent holdings.
“Our approach allows investors to obtain the very same benefits as they would with a hedge fund without the limitations usually associated with hedge funds,” said Francisco Martin, founder. “Our philosophy is simple: We don't charge any management fees but participate with a 10% performance fee and a high-water mark. The transparency of a separate managed account and the elimination of all hedge fund imposed barriers make our approach much more attractive to the investor.”
Fintag says The world's first Hedge Fund ETF? It had to happen.
SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS TO BUY-UP $29 BILLION IN FORECLOSED HOMES
The great American sell-off continues. For sale this time: foreclosed homes throughout the United States with depreciating values. These pieces of real estate are tempting foreign big-money sovereign wealth funds to purchase them at an incredible value. Nothing can be truly considered sacred or American when everything is now for sale at discount prices.
According to a report from the New York Post, an undisclosed sovereign wealth fund has allocated $29 billion to begin purchasing foreclosed homes along the West Coast. American home values and the dollar are both plummeting in value, attracting foreign oil money to invest in the nation's houses. Abu Dhabi, known for its recent purchases of the Chrysler and GM Buildings, is preparing to announce next month what failing American real estate it will soon invest in.
Fintag says Imperialism. First buy the currency. Then its banks. Then the landmarks. Then the people's homes. And there you have it. Ownership through the back door and not one gun shot fired.
12 comments
anonymous said ...
Is that you on the mule?
14 Aug 08 - 07:50 gmt
anonymous said ...
h t t p://seekingalpha.com/article/90683-who-charges-more-mutual-funds-or-hedge-funds
14 Aug 08 - 08:20 gmt
SeekingHelp said ...
Looks like your jetlag is wearing off. Tell me, if you are 5 how come I have seen you in the brothels around Knightsbridge on a regular basis?
14 Aug 08 - 11:01 gmt
anonymous said ...
I read cityboy - he spent quite a lot of time on google cutting and pasting. Its really bad.
14 Aug 08 - 13:08 gmt
anonymous said ...
Finbar Babes? Is there a link? SFW?
14 Aug 08 - 14:17 gmt
anonymous said ...
iphone does now sync to exchange
14 Aug 08 - 14:33 gmt
Finbar said ...
@ANON: My IT geek informs me the exchange link is wobbly but he is pretty unreliable. As for the Finbar Babes, I just made that up to make me feel good.
14 Aug 08 - 15:57 gmt
Dan said ...
Makes you sound like Babes is your fake last name.
Blackberry integration will always be more functional than iphone, there's no question of that. And for those nerds who say that running BES/BIS is a PITA, you can run Funambol and keep everything in-house. True two-way sync with OTA functionality? As a friend who recently left the VC world put it: "I don't work anymore, I wanted a toy - I got an iPhone."
14 Aug 08 - 16:56 gmt
Dan said ...
Oh and one thing bothers me. You come down to Santa Monica and all you talk about is some aging fatty (yesterday)?? Finbar, either you've dated yourself miserably, or you're too English for your own good. This is the land of women who are 15 years old by volume despite their licenses saying 45. Then again, kudos for not indulging the other poor finance geeks not getting any either.
14 Aug 08 - 16:58 gmt
anonymous said ...
That Dan, is why we like English men...self deprecation is a charming quality. Try it.
14 Aug 08 - 19:16 gmt
Moron said ...
women love men who do the self deprecation thing ....probably because women are self depreciating,,,,and they depreciate every year.....so they like the men to self deprecate while they self depreciate (if not self destruct!)....just a theory:))
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This little ditty was sent in by one of our readers, 'Lady of the City'. It should be sung to the tune of Bonnie Tyler's 'Total Eclipse of the Heart'.
Olivant, Every now and then we get in some trouble
and you come round
Olivant, Every now and then we get in some trouble
and you want to break us up
Olivant, Every now and then we get
so worried that the best of years are passing us by ....