30SEP08:
31DEC08 INDICES:
FTSE100:3550
DOW30:7550
# HEDGE FUNDS:4425 30JUN08: Oil to be USD200 by 30OCT08 USA Inflation to be 7.5% by 30OCT08
...oops 23APR08:
Next Rights Issue:
HBOS...yes
All & Lec ...
...1 Nil. 17APR08: Oil to be USD127 by 30SEP08
...16MAY08 losing my touch 27FEB08:
2 Banks go bust by 30JUN08
BS down, Lehman (a bit late I know) 20NOV07: Northern Crock to be sold for 15p
Nationalized 01NOV07: Oil to be USD103 EOM
...peaked too soon 08OCT07:
SEC to fine Goldman for pricing issues
...still waiting 15JUN07: ML to buy-out BS
JPM got there first 06JUN07: The Big Crash: 17OCT07
...well it's here
The banks are frightened of basel 2 because their trading books will have to be treated like banking assets. This means more capital, the end of esoteric structured products and traders being encouraged to be responsible. For us it means even more credit squeeze and banks offering no decent return to shareholders.
No wonder Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan have large hedge funds to play with. Hedge Funds do not need regulated capital. They are the banks' new prop desks. With banks offering higher levels of disclosure, according to a recent report KPMG, but not in their hedge fund investments, the Investment Banks are one step ahead of the regulators - as usual - thanks to us hedgies. The big challenge is keeping the regulators away from these hedge funds which as private pools of capital should be easy - for the time being.
Basel 2 requires weekly capital capital changes. Imagine that. Traders will have a week to cause havoc before turning everything into cash. Offshore spvs will increase in use and so will dark pools. Banks will be places of chaos as the number of spreadsheets proliferate, arguments over whether an ELN can be treated as cash and the death of prop desks.
Risk management are two very over used words. I don't even know that they mean anymore. And for a bunch of anal swissies to control the financial world is quite amusing. Look at UBS; they too had no idea what risk management meant either. Basel 2 is coming out later this year and attempts to globify [Editor:Nice Word] banks. If there are any left that is.
Big Boys I note that the big hedge fund managers are getting bigger. Brevan Howard is the new big Euro hedge fund manager, knocking MAN AHL to number 2, and is just a baby. Funny how I was saying this a year ago that basel 2 would destroy the banks and the big boys would win. And this is exactly what is happening.
This means that in 10 years time, graduates will be wanting to attend programs issued by GLG, BGI or AHL and read history books about the old banks with silly names like Sachs and Morgan.
Exchanges And of course in the future all trading will be done away from old fashioned exchanges (as many trades already are). No more NYSE, LSE and AMEX but exchanges called MarkIt and Turquoise.
Yahoo! Sorry about the delay. My delicious bookmarks and feed links got corrupted after installing the latest firefox addon. 30 minutes later and I was ready to throw my Sony Vaio out onto the street when I read a forum full of fuming firefoxers who had all suffered the same fate. Having installed an older version that works, I realised how reliant I was on Yahoo! Today I will be shorting Yahoo as well as visiting the Apple store in Regent Street (no doubt full of back packers holding hot cups of Starbucks froth as they play facebook games on the Macbooks) to buy myself a MacBook. The time has come. Vista is so bad I am tempted to get out my Windows 3.1 PC from the attic. Time to short Microsoft.
Today's news Here it is, with inane and vitriolic comments and nice street photographs.
Street Photography For old Fintimers, you will know I like to snap street scenes. I can often be found, Banksy style, lurking around backpackers having lunch in St James Park taking pictures of their dogs or packed lunches. I was looking around yesterday in the City after a meeting with Gold*** S***** and became only too aware at how beautiful the people are. In my quest to disprove that New York has beautiful people, I have decided to compile some photos of beautiful Finance office workers in both locations and let you lot vote. [Editor: Sorry, but the beauty disadvantaged will not approve so I cannot permit this].
Europe's 10 largest hedge fund managers have taken advantage of superior operational infrastructures to grow their assets under management by almost a fifth in the 12 months to the end of June, according to analysis by Financial News.
UK global macro fixed-income manager Brevan Howard Asset Management increased its assets under management from $15.2bn (€10.3bn) in June 2007 to $26.3bn a year later, an increase of 73%, making it Europe's largest hedge fund manager.
Fintag says Alan Howard. Such an unpleasant man. Really he is. If you thought the old school network was dead, you are wrong. But he is a god and I kiss his feet. [Editor: Many readers believe you are the same man or one of his cronies. Is this true?]
London now manages 30% of the world's USD3 trillion assets. Nice.
GERMANY'S BUNDESBANK SAYS SLOWING GROWTH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO REDUCE INFLATION IN THE EUROZONE; REGION'S TRADE DEFICIT EXPANDED IN JUNE
Germany's Central bank, the Bundesbank, said today that slowing growth may not be sufficient to reduce inflation in the Eurozone. In separate news, it was reported that the Eurozone's trade deficit expanded in June as a slowing global economy and the euro's rise against the dollar reduced exports.
Axel Weber, the Bundesbank President said today that the German and the European economies remain in "robust shape" and that discussions about a possible end to the economic upswing are misplaced.
A short-term contraction "should not prompt us to conjure up the dangers of a recession," he said in a speech delivered in Hachenburg, Germany.
Fintag says Germany is in a right old mess. Even the UK has more Gold Medals at the Olympics. How is this possible when us Brits are binge drinking louts who have one of the highest obesity rates in the world?
RUNNING A HEDGE FUND IS HARDER THAN IT LOOKS ON TV
Do you remember a time, only a short while ago, when virtually anybody could start a hedge fund? It seemed so easy: billions of dollars were being thrown around like confetti, even at first-time managers. You could make money with your eyes closed. Or so it seemed.
Ronald G. Insana was one of the people who chased that dream. Yes, that Mr. Insana — the man who spent more than a decade as one of CNBC's most prominent anchormen, interviewing some of the biggest titans in business and trying to make sense of the daily gyrations of the market.
Fintag says I can attest to this. But it is not as hard as entertaining you lot everyday.
reuters says " Hedge fund SageCrest files for bankruptcy "
Total hedge fund assets are nearing $3 trillion, according to a new report conducted by HedgeFund.net. According to the report, money invested in hedge funds increased 4.41% in the second quarter to total $2.973 trillion.
Specifically, investors allocated an estimated $34.21 billion to hedge funds in Q2 and performance gains added an additional $91.28 billion to total assets. The dollar amount of fund liquidations during Q2 was larger than new fund launches by an estimated $8.52 billion; the third highest level of fund closures on record.
Despite liquidations, large funds appear to have attracted enough capital to grow the hedge fund industry at an organic growth rate (change in total assets excluding performance) of 11.06% in the last year.
Fintag says Slowly but surely, as the Investment Banks morph into Deposit and Loans banks, the Hedge Fund industry turns into a regulators nightmare...
U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc is considering options, such as selling all or part of its asset management unit, with an aim of reaching a deal by the time it releases third quarter earnings, sources said.
Analysts and bankers have recently said that Lehman may opt to part with its asset management business to further boost its capital. Experts estimate the business, whose core is Neuberger Berman, could be worth about $8 billion.
It was not immediately clear if all or part of the investment management business would be sold. Some have said an outright sale of the entire investment management business could be tough, as it would be too big for most buyers to swallow.
Fintag says Oh dear. Sometimes the old players can look a little bit silly ...
And as for ageing pop singers ...surely not Bono on his bicycle?
9 comments
anonymous said ...
Everyone I know who has previously worked at BH say it's a tough place to work - and agree with your take on its founder. Not many people last long there.
19 Aug 08 - 08:45 gmt
anonymous said ...
MarkIt is not an exchange, it's a reporting venue for OTC trades
On 2008-01-17, NYSE Euronext announced it would acquire the American Stock Exchange for $260 million in stock.
19 Aug 08 - 10:15 gmt
anonymous said ...
The old guy on the BMX does look a bit of wally.
19 Aug 08 - 10:32 gmt
anonymous said ...
can just imagine fin with his micro scooter waiting to have a go...
19 Aug 08 - 12:54 gmt
Finbar said ...
@ANON: Yes MarkIT is a database but I was predicting that it may one day become an exchange. An OTC exchange perhaps?
19 Aug 08 - 13:02 gmt
shit a brick said ...
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Kenneth Rogoff, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, reportedly said Tuesday that a large U.S. bank will collapse in the next few months. "We're not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we're going to see a whopper, we're going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks," Rogoff told a conference in Singapore, according to a Reuters report.
19 Aug 08 - 13:13 gmt
anonymous said ...
If I had to guess, I might speculate that that snap of St. Pauls was taken from the roof of that building on Noble and Gresham Street. But who is in that building?
19 Aug 08 - 15:00 gmt
Fotherington Trouserblanket said ...
Ah yes, that viewpoint does look familar - I think i was entertained there once
19 Aug 08 - 16:19 gmt
anonymous said ...
The term “OTC Exchange” is an oxymoron. I can only assume it was an attempt at humour.
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Europe's 10 largest hedge fund managers have taken advantage of superior operational infrastructures to grow their assets under management by almost a fifth in the 12 months to the end of June, according to analysis by Financial News.
UK global macro fixed-income manager Brevan Howard Asset Management increased its assets under management from $15.2bn (€10.3bn) in June 2007 to $26.3bn a year later, an increase of 73%, making it Europe's largest hedge fund manager.