30SEP08:
31DEC08 INDICES:
FTSE100:3550
DOW30:7550
# HEDGE FUNDS:4425 30JUN08: Oil to be USD200 by 30OCT08 USA Inflation to be 7.5% by 30OCT08
...oops 23APR08:
Next Rights Issue:
HBOS...yes
All & Lec ...
...1 Nil. 17APR08: Oil to be USD127 by 30SEP08
...16MAY08 losing my touch 27FEB08:
2 Banks go bust by 30JUN08
BS down, Lehman (a bit late I know) 20NOV07: Northern Crock to be sold for 15p
Nationalized 01NOV07: Oil to be USD103 EOM
...peaked too soon 08OCT07:
SEC to fine Goldman for pricing issues
...still waiting 15JUN07: ML to buy-out BS
JPM got there first 06JUN07: The Big Crash: 17OCT07
...well it's here
Lehman Bros. have been the red fox of Wall Street. Every time there is a market correction or blowup, the fingers point to Lehman as being a candidate for a fall. They have been predicted to fail, merge or be taken over every time. But it just doesn't happen. But is this time different?
With the Fed asking questions, Koreans saying no and more write downs, the news isn't good. Along with the rest of today's news - which is also very gloomy - I suggest you move on and read something more uplifting.
I SPY MORE ROAD KILL ON THE CREDIT-CRUNCH HIGHWAY: MARK GILBERT
Watching financial markets these days is akin to rubbernecking at a multi vehicle car crash; the initial rush of excitement and adrenaline gives way to sick sensations of horror and helplessness. Here are five more signs that the credit crisis is far from over.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be ``credibly and demonstrably privatized,'' Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said this week. Such a move would signal a capitulation on the part of the U.S. government...
Fintag says Like a large spot that has been squeezed you hope that it goes away soon. The credit crunch spot (and who was the first person to utter those words? I would love to be able to take credit but alas no) just keeps on coming back. Like you I am getting bored of it. Unfortunately the banks have many spots that just refuse to disappear.
Lehman, who only recently started marking down their commercial real estate holdings, are symptomatic of all the banks. They have been arrogant for decades and are struggling to admit that they are in deep trouble. And why not? If you run an organisation that pays you millions and provides a very comfortable lifestyle, wouldn't you want to preserve your status?
Status anxiety is more prevalent than ever. When the unemployed bankers go to work and fail to tell their spouses they are now working in Starbucks, you know society is going to suffer from an increase in mental breakdown. Not a cheery subject but chatting to a counsellor yesterday, it is clear that mental illness is on the increase - both on Wall Street and outside.
So here is a picture to keep 50% of the population smiling:
And another for the other 50% [Editor: This is rather sexist isn't it?]:
Net inflows to emerging markets hedge funds dropped to nearly $1bn (€678.6m) in the second quarter, a 72% decline over the past year, putting them on track to record their lowest level in eight years, according to data provider Hedge Fund Research.
The new HFR report found that hedge funds targeting global emerging markets had inflows of $995m compared to $3.7bn for the second quarter last year. However, the second quarter inflows were 60% higher than the first three months of the year when emerging market fund inflows were $597m.
Fintag says The only way is up ...
ANALYSTS EXPECT FURTHER $3BN LEHMAN BROTHERS WRITEDOWN
Wall Street is bracing itself for surging losses and another $3 billion (£1.6 billion) worth of writedowns at Lehman Brothers when the American investment bank publishes its third-quarter figures next month.
Analysts in New York believe that the bank will reveal much bigger losses than had been expected.
Concerns about the state of Lehman's balance sheet came as reports emerged last night that Lehman had been in talks with Chinese and Korean state funds over the sale of a stake in the bank. It is thought that the talks were abandoned last week. Lehman failed to return calls about the report.
Fintag says Of course this news will not be delivered by Erin Callan who would have been able to keep us cheered up for other reasons. Poor old shareholders. No wonder the short financials trade has a few more months to go ... they will eventually have to stop. Won't they?
Andor Capital Management, a US hedge fund managing about $2bn in assets, is to close down and return money to investors.
Daniel Benton, co-founder of Andor, is retiring from managing outside capital after 24 years in the investment business, he told investors on Wednesday in a letter seen by the Financial Times. Andor was spun off from Art Samberg's Pequot Capital Management in 2001. He built a reputation as a leading technology investor at Pequot, following years as a star technology analyst at Goldman Sachs.
Fintag says This news letter is getting more and more depressing. Where is the fun news? A creaky plane in Spain burns people alive, Russia is catching up with GB in the gold medal table and I ate at a very disappointing restaurant yesterday called Mint Leaf.
WHEAT JUMPS ON DRY WEATHER IN ARGENTINA, AUSTRALIA
Wheat prices jumped above $9 a bushel Wednesday on expectations that warm, dry weather in Argentina and Australia will hurt crops and tighten world supplies.
Hot, dry weather in southern hemispheric wheat-growing countries, especially Argentina and Australia, have fed concerns about slow crop development and sparked a round of fund buying, said Vic Lespinasse of Grainanalyst.com.
Fintag says And now my daily bread is under attack.
CONCERNS GROW OVER BIG BANK FAILURES (ONE OR TWO 'WHOPPERS' LIKELY)
Just a few days after the publication of a report in which 60% of the 146 banks, investors and hedge funds surveyed said that they felt that there was a strong likelihood of a major financial institution failing in the next 6 months, other naysayers have surfaced echoing the same sentiments.
Only 27% of the respondents in the Greenwich Associates survey said that they thought we were not in for another Bear Stearns-type scenario in the next few months, and now the smart money is indicating that another major bank failure is almost a certainty.
One of the great secrets of our success here at DealBreaker is our readers. We have the brightest, wittiest and best informed commenters on the web who help keep our recent comments page always fresh. And our tipsters--often people we have never met who reach out to us through email and phone calls--have helped us break stories and get the insider angle on stories where everyone else is simply re-writing the press release.
Fintag says Of course FiNTAG cannot claim to have commentators of this calibre but they are certainly funnier. As for tipping me off, please do it in the comment section as I don't record the IP address. Emails and texts and phone calls and faxes are all traceable although facebook is a better place to leave gossip according to my IT geek and I prefer that too.
Without gossip the Financial Markets would be even more depressing.
LOEB SOUNDS OFF ON S.E.C.'S RUMOR-MONGERING INQUIRY
Daniel S. Loeb has never been shy about committing his thoughts to paper. In an letter to investors sent last month, he lets them know how he feels about recent actions by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The letter, available as a PDF on the Web site of Third Point's England-listed fund, discusses in part the recently lapsed ban on certain kinds of short-selling, as well as allegations of rumor-mongering.
Fintag says This is very old news but I was away when it came out. So it is new news to me.
Christopher Cox, the Securities and Exchange Commission chairman, said an anticipated regulation on short selling would be ready in a few weeks time in a move likely to provoke a mixed reaction on Wall Street.
Cox addressed reporters after a news conference and said the proposal "will focus on market-wide solutions," but is not intended to have any impact on the direction of prices.
Fintag says So the SEC intends to restrict futures and options trading too? These people are morons. You can still short sell without physically borrowing stocks. Regulation may close one door but always opens another. If they want to kill off market liquidity then go ahead. Hedge funds are the markets. Nobody wants low volumes and large spreads - that is what you get in third world exchanges.
INVESTMENT STRATEGY BLOGS SLOW TO INFLUENCE FINANCIAL ADVISORS
Investment strategy blogs aren't exactly taking the wealth management world by storm.
Their acceptance by financial advisors has not been proportional to their growth rate. For example, when the CFA Institute tried to find sources for this story, most people told them they're not participating in the blogosphere, either as readers or contributors.
Web 2.0—the second generation of Internet technology that fosters sharing and collaboration among a broad community of users—is a hot topic in the business community. This has led to an explosion in the number of Investment strategy blogs. Seeking Alpha, for example, offers opinions and analysis from more than 200 contributors, which the editors evaluate in terms of “Does the article help a fundamentally-oriented investor decide whether to buy or sell the stock in question?” ...
So, advisors who'd like to dip their toes into the blogosphere should step carefully. Check out the bloggers' credentials and see how their opinions and analysis line up with more traditional sources. You can also see what your colleagues are reading.
Fintag says I think they are missing the point. The fact people are discussing investment strategy is in itself a form of investment strategy. However, an interesting if somewhat fatuous article.
And for those of you who got this far, you can bail out now.
8 comments
anonymous said ...
Fintag that dead fox was unnecessary
21 Aug 08 - 09:38 gmt
anonymous said ...
i seem to remember greenspan refering to a credit crunch when he left ben in charge... ???
21 Aug 08 - 10:02 gmt
Moron said ...
don't worry mate....just keep shorting till the whole world collapses
21 Aug 08 - 11:44 gmt
anonymous said ...
News aside, I cannot help but wonder what happened to that fox. It's so mangled.
21 Aug 08 - 14:06 gmt
Shane Warne said ...
Ahhhhh, it is called decomposition....
21 Aug 08 - 14:09 gmt
Pierpont said ...
That is good news that financial advisors don't read blogs. All the information that one really wants to know are on the blogs, the stuff in the wsj are just rewritten press releases, thus reading blogs still gives an edge.
21 Aug 08 - 15:12 gmt
anonymous said ...
Ewww
21 Aug 08 - 17:37 gmt
z said ...
Does short selling not make the markets more efficient? The SEC really needs some help.
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Watching financial markets these days is akin to rubbernecking at a multi vehicle car crash; the initial rush of excitement and adrenaline gives way to sick sensations of horror and helplessness. Here are five more signs that the credit crisis is far from over.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be ``credibly and demonstrably privatized,'' Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said this week. Such a move would signal a capitulation on the part of the U.S. government...