28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 30SEP08:
31DEC08 INDICES:
FTSE100:3550
DOW30:7550
# HEDGE FUNDS:4425 30JUN08: Oil to be USD200 by 30OCT08 USA Inflation to be 7.5% by 30OCT08
...oops 23APR08:
Next Rights Issue:
HBOS...yes
All & Lec ...
...1 Nil. 17APR08: Oil to be USD127 by 30SEP08
...16MAY08 losing my touch 27FEB08:
2 Banks go bust by 30JUN08
BS down, Lehman (a bit late I know) 20NOV07: Northern Crock to be sold for 15p
Nationalized 01NOV07: Oil to be USD103 EOM
...peaked too soon 08OCT07:
SEC to fine Goldman for pricing issues
...still waiting 15JUN07: ML to buy-out BS
JPM got there first 06JUN07: The Big Crash: 17OCT07
...well it's here
During her heyday, she was a perky and joyous acctress who could make us all feel warm inside [Editor: Or quite ill too]. She got out of the business at the top, well near the top, and has rarely been seen since.
She knew when her time was up; unlike many Investment Banks and Hedge Funds who are suffering at the hands of the "Credit Crunch" (and yes I am still looking for the origin of this phrase; one reader thought it was a Greenspannerism) and are not exiting when they should be.
August is a month of low volumes and people hiding away on beaches and by pools pretending their Hollywood career will still be there when they get back. So I predict that September is going to be a very unpleasant month. So please enjoy yourselves in the mean time.
Yesterday was a Bank Holiday in the UK hence no newsletter. I tried to enjoy myself but being stuck on the M4 because some Olympians were landing at Heathrow seemed a tad selfish and much of my time was spent going very slowly. I quite liked that.
LEHMAN, THE TOOTH FAIRY AND THE REVENGE OF THE SHORT-SELLERS
Lehman Brothers Holdings received another blow this morning when a potential suitor–Korea Development Bank–received a rap on the knuckles from South Korea's chief financial regulator.
“In principle, taking over a global investment bank can become an opportunity to raise the capability of the [Korean] investment banking business,” Jun-Kwang Woo, the head of the country's Financial Services Commission, told the Financial Times. “But at the same time, as the risks are also big, KDB should take a cautious approach... We welcome any efforts led by the private sector to go global, but it may not be proper for state-owned financial institutions to lead the role and take on excessive burdens,” he added....
Fintag says This is all very nice but will the US Government (which is run by Hank Paulson) allow Korea the chance to own a piece of US history? I extremely doubt it. Unlike the UK which gave away all its old Merchant Banks in the 1980'a and 1990's, I just cannot believe the USA will go the same way.
Pressure is mounting on Gordon Brown to find help for hard-pressed families as the new Deputy Governor of the Bank of England warned that the financial situation was at least as bad as that of the 1970s. As the Prime Minister returns to his desk today to work on an economic plan that will form the centrepiece of his attempt at an autumn political fightback, Charles Bean said that the slowdown may "drag on for some considerable time" and that social problems could be caused by the squeeze on household incomes.
Mr Bean, speaking at a central bankers' conference in Wyoming, said that the financial crisis was a "transitory period". But he warned that every time the markets appeared to be recovering, "another grenade" exploded.
Fintag says As long as I don't have to wear Kipper ties and watch the Partridge family on TV, then I am cool about this. Actually that is not true. Economically, along with the Cold War, the 1970's was a tough decade and it took most of the 1980's to sort out the mess.
Still, a weak USD / GBP is good for us USD based hedge funds. bbc says " Recession fears weaken sterling "
financial times says " Inflation pressures deal blow to pensions "
China has resorted to stealth intervention in the currency markets to amass US dollars, using indirect means to hold down the yuan and ease the pain for its struggling exporters as the global slowdown engulfs the economy.
A study by HSBC's currency team in Asia has concluded that China's central bank is in effect forcing commercial banks to build up large dollar reserves, using them as arms-length proxies in a renewed campaign of exchange rate intervention.
Fintag says Is this good or bad? This is what Japan has been doing since the Second World War and look what a mess that country has been in economically.
A huge number of redemption requests has Ore Hill Partners closing the door.
Investors fleeing the fixed-income hedge fund shop, which is half-owned by Man Group, triggered an automatic gate provision at the firm's $1.2 billion Ore Hill International Fund, it said. A spokeswoman for the firm told The Wall Street Journal that the fund's directors are considering what steps to take in the interests of all of the fund's investors.
Fintag says Once upon a time, Investors took a long term view. Now they act like day traders.
CITADEL INVESTMENT SEEKS $1 BILLION FOR GLOBAL MACRO HEDGE FUND
Citadel Investment Group LLC, the Chicago-based asset-management firm founded by Kenneth Griffin, is seeking about $1 billion for a new global macro hedge fund, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
The fund is set to be managed in London by Kaveh Alamouti, 54, whom Citadel hired this year from New York-based Moore Capital Management LLC, according to the person, who asked not to be identified because the plans are private. Citadel oversees $20 billion.
Fintag says When most of the world's Hedge Funds are suffering serious redemptions, secretive PR spinning gurus Citadel tell us it is going to raise a mere USD1 billion. Do you believe this? Really? Cash and hard commitments?
reuters says " Hedge investors on cautious tack in choppy markets "
UBS expects to cut its salary and bonus budget by about $4bn, or a third, as Europe's biggest casualty of the US credit crisis adjusts its finances in the light of a reduced headcount and shrinking income from many of its core businesses.
The bank, which has had to write down about $43bn since the outbreak of the credit crisis, attributed the decline largely to investment banking, one of its core divisions alongside private banking and asset management, where there has been a sharp fall in business in many areas.
Fintag says Only a third? That is shocking. The bank has shrunk by about four fifths and its salary bill, a sizeable chunk of its P&L, should decline likewise.
Typical. Investment Bankers thinking only of themselves and not their shareholders.
8 comments
UBJ Saxo Bank said ...
In regards to the origin of "Credit Crunch" - Gary North wrote a report november 17th, 1967, called "The coming Credit Crunch", after the first international gold conference... Might be the inventor of the much used phrase....
26 Aug 08 - 08:38 gmt
SMJ said ...
Yes, I believe Citadel can raise $1Bn.
You asked.
26 Aug 08 - 14:02 gmt
John, London said ...
YTD how is your fund doing Fin?
26 Aug 08 - 14:20 gmt
Moron said ...
we r gonna have a stock market crash in september!
26 Aug 08 - 16:00 gmt
YTD said ...
Citadel should be able to raise that $1bn initially, whether it'll be sticky enough remains to be seen. Alamouti has the skills, but the motivation? Have you met the man Fin?
26 Aug 08 - 16:47 gmt
Fo' real said ...
Nice article in HFMweek of 7 August on FOHF fees collapsing to <1 and 0. That should reduce the number of beta surfing box-tickers. Another inflated industry downsizing. Just like real estate agents. Bear markets can be fun.
26 Aug 08 - 17:04 gmt
Dan said ...
Shouldn't it read "Once upon a time, Investment managers (sic) took a long term view. Now they act like day traders." ?
26 Aug 08 - 17:35 gmt
hElubdEBOmqYNYnFeGV said ...
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