28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Cash is king and is never more so than when running a blog site. Having failed to pay my hoster for another 12 months, fintag was taken down yesterday. The bailiffs told me off and then gave me another 48 hours to come up with the readies. I put it on my credit card and its back up.
When running a fund or two, leverage is often used to satisfy timing differences. If an investor wants out, it may take longer to unwind the positions than the time given to the investor. This is common in illiquid funds like real estate where a pool of cash sits around ready to pay off early redeemers. Bernie Madoff had a similar approach except it appears he had no positions to unwind, just 100% cash to move about.
I had a dream last night that Paypal became the World's only bank. Following the collapse of Citi and most of the world's banks, Paypal became a haven of safeness. Not that this could ever happen. Could it?
An eager reader sent this to me: "...for more than a year i've had this really annoying habit (to my husband anyway) of having my insomnia kick in at about 515 am when i reach over for my blackberry to enjoy your daily missive. when it's not there i have to go read james wolcott over at vanity fair, who is amazing, but not smart and funny about finance."
Now under normal circumstances I would glow with pride; but comparing a numbers man to a trained in the field hack is quite frankly alarming. As Finbar Taggit becomes the Oprah of the finance world, the burdens of responsibility get more onerous - and I don't even get paid for it. It's cash again. I took the ludicrous position yesterday of handing out free advertising space. That was a dumb idea as I was inundated with offers to display wares from plumbing services to hair gel.
Update Claims I was going to Chicago were untrue. The plan was to go there but my meetings were cancelled. Apparently they thought one of my funds was something to do with Madoff. It is called the "Fair View Tree Mount Air Real Ponzi fund." So alas all those admirers who were hoping to be entertained by my wit and jet lag, I am truly sorry. Today I fly back to New York for one meeting and then back to London.
I shall soon be launching a tracking system, as used by DHL, so you can track my movements. Well most of them.
WHAT'S IN A NAME? A LOT, TO A FUND NOT TIED TO MADOFF
Even people who have not lost money in the Madoff scandal are finding non-monetary reasons to be upset. Ariel Investments, a Chicago mutual fund company headed by John Rogers Jr., is plenty mad that it is being confused with a different Ariel fund, one that has ties to the fallen money manager Bernard L. Madoff.
The Chicago fund has put out a statement on its website entitled “Important Clarification,” in which it says it is “NOT the same entity” as the Ariel hedge fund operated by J. Ezra Merkin. Mr. Merkin's Ariel — along with the Ascot and Gabriel funds — is a so-called “feeder fund” that took money from investors and placed it in Madoff's Ponzi scheme.
Fintag says Madoff is not a real name - apparently. It is based from Medoff, a Bulgarian and Jewish variant according to various sources. But that is not the point. The point of passing off a fund to sound like another back fires if the fund you are trying to sound like goes phut. Not that I am implying Ariel were trying to do this.
It is truly very hard coming up with credible names for funds. Truly it is and I have great sympathy for AI. Isn't that a film with Jude Law before he went bald?
UNDER PRESSURE - BOFA, CITI, DEUTSCHE, HSBC, JPMORGAN, RBS, UBS
Shares fell 4.1% Monday (but fully recovered Tuesday), after it confirmed that it will announce its fourth-quarter earnings Thursday, 6 days earlier than planned. The market is confused about whether the early announcement signals that the results are worse than feared, or better than expected! The bank is, however, expected to post its worst quarter since CEO Jamie Dimon took charge 2 years ago.
Fintag says I wonder how these will turn out for JP Morgan? Strange world where the Boards have less clue than outside analysts ....
MADOFF CASE PROMISES FEES FOR FIRMS FACING WORST YEAR IN DECADE
he week after Bernard Madoff was charged with running a $50 billion Ponzi scheme, Proskauer Rose, a New York firm of 750 lawyers, offered a telephone briefing on the scandal for its wealthy clients. With only a day's notice, 1,300 Madoff investors dialed in.
“This is a financial 9/11 for our clients,” said Proskauer litigation partner Gregg Mashberg, one of the lawyers on the call. “People are dying for information.”
Fintag says Good news from bad news. Lawyers? Don't you just luv 'em.
Investors withdrew close to a net $150bn from hedge funds last month despite moves by dozens of funds to halt or suspend redemptions. The record December figure, equivalent to about 10% of industry assets, extends the run of outflows to four consecutive months and has increased the total net outflow for 2008 to $200bn. The size of the once lucrative industry has almost halved in the past year, to $1,000bn under management, according to TrimTabs Investment Research and Barclay Hedge.
Fintag says Tell me, how do they know this? The number is a nice round 150. I think it would be better to say there have been some redemptions and leave it that.
Akoundi says that the single biggest problem with risk-management professionals today is that of independence. They nearly all report to C-level executives: the CFO, or COO, or CIO, or CEO. At hedge funds, they generally report to the founder of the company. What's more, they're paid more when the firm does well, and less when the firm does badly: exactly the same incentive structure as the risk-takers they're paid to police. "Every risk manager is a politician in the last quarter," says Akoundi -- which is a serious problem when the stock market starts tanking spectacularly in October.
Fintag says Wrong question. The first question should be, what is Risk Management? The Board of Directors are Risk Managers. Risk Managers who report to the board and not Risk Managers because they have no risks to worry about except their jobs.
A psychiatrist and trading coach is offering his help to stressed out hedge fund managers and investors with a consulting firm specializing in peak-performance coaching for hedge funds, institutional investors and traders.
Ari Kiev said he is expanding the services he provides to hedge funds and other investment firms to include the assessment of new portfolio managers, team building and leadership training.
Fintag says If this involves mixed sessions, I am in.
Standard & Poor's has launched a new service, valuation scenario services for structured asset portfolios. The idea behind the service is to help investors evaluate the intrinsic value of structured assets and complex securities.
The service, provided by S&P's fixed income risk management services, offers a range of analytics giving investors greater context around asset pricing and the detailed relationships between counterparties and obligors
Fintag says This is the funniest thing I have heard so far this year.
BANK OF AMERICA MAY RECEIVE U.S. AID FOR MERRILL LYNCH PURCHASE
Bank of America Corp., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, may get more aid from the government to help absorb losses tied to this month's acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co., three people familiar with the matter said.
Details are likely to be disclosed on Jan. 20, the people said. That's when Bank of America may post its first quarterly loss in 17 years as it digests the purchases of Merrill Lynch and Countrywide Financial Corp. The combined company has already received $25 billion from the U.S.
Fintag says Should I laugh or should I cry? Utter madness.
As sent to me by an observant job seeker, check this out ...
what really worries me, is that I am he first one today...
15 Jan 09 - 11:16 gmt
M said ...
many have thought that...:)
15 Jan 09 - 11:19 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
what worries me more is "too big to fail" banks technically bust, valuation services offered by S&P (sic!) and fintag's website down...
15 Jan 09 - 11:19 gmt
Top Cat said ...
@Fitzcaraldo - yep, it's all going to the dogs.
15 Jan 09 - 11:26 gmt
Jaa said ...
It's like watching a 1000 horror movies with each climax coming on consecutive days...
15 Jan 09 - 11:34 gmt
Tradebot said ...
Correct on the the risk managers, it is pointless for risk managers to report to the management who set their budgets/compensation. There is no way risk managers will be able to make independent decisions in interest of the shareholders as the management will control the risk managers.
15 Jan 09 - 11:44 gmt
Tradebot said ...
...that and Board inactivity in controlling the management. Management has been proven to be completely out of touch, compensation and operational control wise. Hence, the hedgies have performed better than the banks ie. at least in most hedge funds the management has a proper stake in the business. For example, me thinks Goldman Sachs would not be in the same mess if it had retained the partnership structure.
15 Jan 09 - 11:47 gmt
Tradebot said ...
oh, well, after a little break glad to see nothing has changed. S&P valuation news are hilarious, are these the same guys who rated all the crap at AAA just to see it collapse to 10 cents to the dollar? Nice work if you can get some...
15 Jan 09 - 11:52 gmt
anonymous said ...
I am always wondering why madoff wears a baseball cap. Does he keep his cheque book there?
15 Jan 09 - 12:17 gmt
Photoshop said ...
Oprah looks younger every day - how does she do it?
15 Jan 09 - 12:18 gmt
anonymous said ...
Actually, she is railing at the moment because she just put a tonne of weight back on.....
15 Jan 09 - 12:55 gmt
Panta said ...
Financial news: Tresuary to lose £10bn from slashed City bonuses.....AHAHAHAHAH!!!! Sorry about that...i couldn't resist!
15 Jan 09 - 13:25 gmt
Panta said ...
that news was from 12th jannuarry i had completely missed it... Ho my Og i am becoming old broken et with alzaimer
15 Jan 09 - 13:28 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
Finbar Taggit is he really God?? Interesting banner you have up there FT...
15 Jan 09 - 13:47 gmt
anonymous said ...
nice banner, Alpha60 ... in blog's style
15 Jan 09 - 13:55 gmt
redundant and missing his bloomberg said ...
does anyone know what citi's CDS are trading at.
15 Jan 09 - 15:18 gmt
Jaa said ...
350/360
15 Jan 09 - 15:27 gmt
Jaa said ...
Citi, rumour doing rounds they will be in US govt control by weekend. Stock is certainly trading that way ..oops
15 Jan 09 - 15:32 gmt
redundant and missing his bloomberg said ...
Unbelievable, many thanks what odds to you think we should put on that rumor!?
15 Jan 09 - 15:54 gmt
anonymous said ...
Prediction of 2010 - a £200 note issued called the Brown note.
15 Jan 09 - 16:03 gmt
anonymous fool said ...
always nice to see panic in the mkt...was almost missing the heady days of mid 2008
15 Jan 09 - 16:03 gmt
anonymous said ...
moron, have you any thoughts as to where the bottom of the market may fall?
15 Jan 09 - 16:23 gmt
Moron said ...
yes i have thoughts....but i will keep them to myself...will let you know on this blog when i think its time to buy....rest assured....we need a lot more pain before the bottom..
15 Jan 09 - 17:51 gmt
anonymous said ...
Mr. Taggit, your "BUY ME" next to the Oprah picture can be misconstrued to signal your wanting to engage in vile racist behavior.
I suggest, that before the authorities come to TALK to you, that a little change of placement of these items on your website.
Memo from King Obama
15 Jan 09 - 18:08 gmt
anonymous said ...
@anon18:08 - your kidding right?
15 Jan 09 - 18:10 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
Its seems I'm late to the party.
Finbar - wassup with this? nvestors withdrew close to a net $150bn from hedge funds last month despite moves by dozens of funds to halt or suspend redemptions or the equivalent of about 10% of industry assets.
10% of industry assets?
15 Jan 09 - 18:38 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
That would make hedgies control equal to 1.5 trillion right? The USA's govt is going to blow through that in 1 year without making any return on investment.
As a shareholder in my country now that we've gone socialist, I must protest! I'm being diluted.
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