Friday, September 30, 2011

German and French hypocrisy

Italy runs flat © fintag

News comments:

Greece. 143%+ debt / GDP.

Italy. 120%+ debt / GDP.

Ireland. 96%+ debt / GDP.

Portugal. 93%+ debt / GDP.

Germany. 83%+ debt / GDP.

France. 82%+ debt / GDP.

When these and the other 11 countries joined the Euro, they signed up to the Stability and Growth pact. The key rule is national debt must be lower than 60% of GDP or approaching that value.

As can be seen, most countries have ignored this. If France and Germany haven't bothered to adhere to the rules they helped to create, why should the others bother too?

These numbers are for 2010. It is quite likely the 2011 numbers will be higher. The euro-TARP (I mean ESFS FSES FESS, why can't they come with something you can say...) will have a big job buying up debt.

Buying debt doesn't reduce debt. All it does is pass it around. It keeps banks tier 1 capital safe (phew!) and means countries like Greece can come up with more excuses but still have a lender of last resort.

The ECB is banrkrupt. It has already purchased junk debt so will it be allowed to flog it the euro-TARP? I hope so. The euro-TARP will soon become the world's largest ever toxic bucket of subprime debt. Like a monster that needs to eat all the time, it will hoover up cash to secure the debts of the feckless.

The markets have jerked off to the news the EURO founders want the EURO to continue. Of course they do. Germany and France like it because their exports are cheap and the minor countries because it gets them up the social ladder.

I will say it again. 31 Dec. There will be 2 Euros.

Today's shorts:
Morgan Stanley to ask for euro-TARP money (bloomberg)

Hedgie is a fraud (finalt)

Today's longs:
HP 1 Oracle 0 (reuters)

Gossip:
Morgan Stanley to merge with Greece.



5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Fintag you called the September crash a year early I seem to remember so I would push it back a year. Occupy Wall Street

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